Kevin McCarthy Is Already a Gift to Democrats
By the middle of next year, House Democrats fighting to regain the majority, Senate Democrats working to maintain their majority, President Biden or another Democrat running for president - and any Republican running for president - will all be running against the House GOP. Why? Because much of all that House Republicans have promised to do in the 118th Congress will backfire on them politically, turn off independent voters, and bolster Democrats as they head into the critical 2024 election.
Battling GOP extremism just helped Democrats stop a red wave in the 2022 midterms. Yet new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has elevated fringe figures like Reps. Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene to first-string players in the House GOP conference.
Swing voters were "frightened" of Republicans, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell said after the midterms. McConnell said they believed Republicans "were not dealing with issues in a responsible way and we were spending too much time on negativity and attacks and chaos." But chaos and attacks, and possibly even a debt default, are what McCarthy has enabled.
A bipartisan select committee to investigate economic competitiveness with China, an open and more transparent floor process, allowing 72 hours for members to read a bill before voting - all of this is fine. But detailing a ransom payment in a secret three-page "addendum" and putting three Freedom Caucus members on the Rules Committee? That's disastrous.
The Fundraising Caucus members who dragged McCarthy through 15 ballots to become speaker now have veto power over which bills make it to the House floor: The hostage-takers are gatekeepers too. McCarthy and his detractors did not "sort out their differences" as he insisted. He gave them things we may never know of, and they will ask for more.
There will be more differences, and more fighting soon as well, because fighting is the point. It keeps the hardliners relevant with the base and helps raise small-donor donations. Irresponsible people have not only been empowered - McCarthy has promised to risk uncertainty on the debt limit by pledging to insurgents it would not be lifted without spending cuts, that he would hold to a cap on discretionary spending at FY 2022 levels, and that they will balance the budget in 10 years.
As Rep. Bob Good, one of the leading rebels, put it on Fox News, "We will have zero leverage ... if we're not willing to threaten [a government shutdown] and willing to follow through on it." These comments immediately became a DNC alert on Twitter. Responsible House Republicans who did not take McCarthy hostage are worried.
They are already working with Democrats to figure out a path to avert a debt default. To find £130 billion in savings, both Democrats and Republicans are concerned that the Pentagon will get hit by a 10% cut. Not surprisingly, far-right House Republicans are already talking out of both sides of their mouths on this critical question which would have been unheard of in the party just a few years ago.
Rep. Chip Roy said[1] on Twitter that defense cuts were "NEVER DISCUSSED" And that there were "broad agreements spending cuts should focus on NON-DEFENSE discretionary spending." But Jordan said everything is on the table including military spending, particularly in Ukraine.
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"If we'd focus on getting rid of all the 'woke' in our military, we'd have the money we need to make sure our troops get the pay raise they deserve, we'd have the weapons systems and training that needs to be done so that we're ready to deal with our adversaries around the planet," Jordan said on Fox. Rep.
Michael Waltz, a former Green Beret, fired back on Fox Business Channel, saying "I'm all for a balanced budget but we're not going to do it on the backs of our troops and our military. If we really want to talk about the debt and spending, it's the entitlement programs." White House chief of staff Ron Klain tweeted the Waltz video with the comment, "They are going to try and cut social security and Medicare. It could not be clearer."
The White House has already accused Republicans of planning to "defund the military in the name of politics," and is relishing the opportunity to paint Republicans as threats to our readiness. While they battle among themselves over spending cuts, Republicans have promised multiple investigations into the FBI, Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, and the U.S.-Mexico border. Should these probes fail to turn up significant revelations, we can be assured of high-wattage hearing theater from those intending to go viral.
There is fundraising to do after all. And that combat footage will help the anti-establishment rebels, even if it threatens the House majority come November of 2024. Throughout this cycle, McCarthy will walk a fine line trying to recruit and run GOP candidates who can beat Democrats in blue districts - to grow his majority - while he helps more far-right candidates come to the next Congress to join Greene, Gaetz, and the gang.
That is because the cliffhanger of McCarthy's speaker vote was partially resolved - don't laugh - by two super PACs agreeing that McCarthy would no longer support more mainstream candidates in safe GOP seats like he did this cycle through the Congressional Leadership Fund. Not only did the agreement require that McCarthy back off with his money in open primaries of solid red districts, but that he wouldn't donate to other entities to do so. Safe seat or not, every radical Republican running anywhere, even where a Democrat doesn't contest the race, helps the Democrats national narrative.
Meanwhile, McCarthy agreed to weaken the House Ethics Committee that will investigate embattled freshman Rep. George Santos, the New York congressman who lied about his whole life to get elected. McCarthy has insisted on supporting Santos, who will be another poster child for the House GOP - as they say, the ads write themselves.
New Navigator polling shows[2] House Republicans are already in a deep hole with independent voters, only 21% of whom approve of their new majority so far. Republicans promised to combat inflation and crime, but that's not what voters are going to be hearing about this year. They will be hearing mostly about the Biden family and the FBI.
Perhaps what Republicans uncover about the Bidens will be enough to drown out their own circus when it comes to governance - but it's doubtful.
Just like it's doubtful Republicans can balance the budget by de-working the military.
House Republicans know all this, but they chose a maelstrom anyway.