Brussels Playbook: Marin loses — Pulling China from Putin's arms …

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Voiced by artificial intelligence. What's driving the day in Brussels.

By JAKOB HANKE VELA

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

Send tips here | Tweet @HankeVela | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser GOOD MORNING. Overnight, incumbent PM Sanna Marin's Social-Democrats came third in the Finnish election, trailing the conservative National Coalition Party of Petteri Orpo and the populist Finns party.

Marin conceded defeat; it's now up to Orpo to spearhead talks with other parties to form a coalition in the parliament. In Bulgaria, voters also headed for the ballot box Sunday -- for the fifth time in two years, after previous elections repeatedly failed to lead to a stable majority. In the first release of results, it seemed the pro-Western coalition, We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, won a narrow majority with 26.4 percent, beating the center-right establishment party, GERB, on 25.5 percent. But in a recount, the former scored 24.8 percent, with GERB in the lead on 25.9 percent.

Observers expect a clearer picture to emerge today. And in Montenegro, former Economy Minister Jakov Milatovic has managed to unseat Milo Dukanovic after more than three decades of rule in Sunday's presidential runoff. Milatovic, who campaigned on an anti-corruption, pro-EU platform, won around 60 percent of the vote, according to local pollsters.

The official election results are expected in the coming days. Backstory here, Reuters has the latest.

DRIVING THE WEEK: EU-CHINA

EU SEEKS TO ENGAGE CHINA: EU leaders concerned about a Moscow-Beijing axis of evil are kicking into diplomatic high gear. If they can't get China to play a more constructive role when it comes to Moscow's war on Ukraine, the EU at least wants to pull Beijing back from the brink and discourage President Xi Jinping from sending weapons to Russia, which they fear would trigger a global proxy war with devastating consequences.

So after Xi visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month, it's now the EU's turn to court the Chinese leader in Beijing. The place to be: Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez -- who takes over the presidency of the Council of the EU starting July -- met Xi and Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing on Friday; European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are following in his footsteps this week. Strategy meeting: Ahead of Tuesday's trip to Beijing, von der Leyen meets Macron in Paris today for a working lunch.

An adviser to the French president told reporters that Macron wanted to prevent China from taking a "fatal decision" on arming Russia. My colleagues Clea Caulcutt, Stuart Lau and Jonathan Lemire have the full curtain-raiser ahead of the trip. Speak to him: In a press conference after meeting Xi, Sanchez said he had urged the Chinese leader to speak with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy -- not a bad idea given China's self-proclaimed peace-broker ambitions.

Sanchez also said he had advocated for Zelenskyy's peace plan, based on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. Zelenskyy, for his part, has invited Xi to Kyiv for talks, and said: "I want to speak with him." TIME TO TAKE CHINA DEAL OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE? On the face of it, the idea sounds absurd: The unratified China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) makes it easier for EU companies to move their production to China and for Chinese businesses to snatch up key EU sectors such as renewables.

It contradicts everything EU leaders have been preaching -- more diversification, less dependency on dictatorships, learning the lessons from Russia's war. And yet, senior diplomats are again talking about the agreement, portraying it as an effort to bind China to the EU and avoid it forming a common front with Russia. Along with Nord Stream 2, the CAI is a toxic legacy of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's time in office -- she pushed it over the line during Berlin's presidency of the Council in 2020.

But the deal was never ratified and was put on ice over human rights concerns in Xinjiang, where China stands accused of committing a genocide against the Uyghur minority. The idea of reviving the deal has been making the rounds since Merkel's successor Olaf Scholz traveled to China last November and advocated for an economic reconciliation between Berlin and Beijing -- arguing the EU did not want to decouple from China. Last month, the question of reviving the agreement also overshadowed the EU summit, as senior diplomats said Council President Charles Michel had also discussed it, as Playbook reported.

Reading the runes: Last Friday in Beijing, Sanchez did not explicitly mention the CAI -- but said he had discussed with his counterparts how to "find a better balance in our economic and trade relations" and that the principles of transparency and level playing field would guide efforts to "deepen the relationship between the European Union and China." That rings a bell: After striking the China-EU deal, Brussels sought to sell it as a big win for "transparency" and the "level playing field." How does this fit with Ursula von der Leyen's hawkish China speech? Last week, the Commission chief warned that Beijing's "escalatory actions point to a China that is becoming more repressive at home and more assertive abroad." Beijing was not pleased.

Sanchez sought to downplay the differences when asked whether he agreed with von der Leyen's warnings, saying he was "perfectly aware" that she was going to make that speech because Madrid had been in "constant exchanges with [her] and her Cabinet." "I agree with her that, indeed, the relationship between the European Union and China is a complex relationship," Sanchez said, but added: "It is also a very important relationship and one that is called to be deepened." **On April 19 at 6:30 p.m. BST, a senior cabinet minister will headline POLITICO Tech U.K.

Launch Event. Register today for online attendance.**

MORE RUSSIAN WAR

WHAT THE KREMLIN WILL BE TALKING ABOUT TODAY -- RUSSIAN MILITARY BLOGGER DEAD: An explosion in St. Petersburg killed Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky (real name Maxim Fomin) on Sunday. It's not clear who was responsible for the blast. More here.

NATO'S TURKEY HEADACHE: Amid some observers openly wondering whether Turkey still fits into NATO, my colleague Lili Bayer writes that officials and allies in the defense club have evinced no desire to engage the issue. They insist NATO and Turkey are locked in a marriage of mutual convenience, Lili writes: Turkey brings the second-largest NATO army to the table, contributes to alliance missions and operations, and sits on prime geopolitical real estate between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Worth your time.

ARMENIA WON'T COMPLY WITH ICC WARRANT: Armenia won't detain Putin in compliance with a n International Criminal Court arrest warrant if the Russian president arrives in the country, the parliament's Deputy Speaker Hakob Arshakyan told the Armenpress news agency. The reassurance comes after Armenia's Constitutional Court paved the way to the ratification of the Rome Statute, the ICC's founding treaty, which would legally oblige Yerevan to comply with the warrant. Russia warned Armenia of "negative consequences" if it acceded to the treaty.

BLINKEN DEMANDS RELEASE OF WSJ REPORTER: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for Russia to release Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich, who has been detained on allegations of spying and faces up to 20 years in prison, in a conversation with his counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Sunday. The call came ahead of Blinken's trip to Europe this week, where he is expected to attend, among other things, the NATO foreign ministerial meeting.

Now read this: The Wall Street Journal, which called the charges against Gershkovich "fabricated," has a profile of its correspondent and has made all his Russia stories available to read for free here.

IN OTHER NEWS

PARISIANS BREAK UP WITH THE E-SCOOTER: A majority of voters opted to ban e-scooters in Paris in a referendum on Sunday. Over 100,000 people participated in the non-binding vote (which authorities have promised to implement), with 89 percent wanting a ban. Results here.

But they won't disappear right away: The contracts of the capital's three authorized operators -- Lime, Dott and Tier -- last until the end of August. SWISS TO PROBE UBS TAKEOVER OF CREDIT SUISSE: Swiss prosecutors have opened an investigation into possible illegal activity in connection with government support for UBS's rushed takeover of Credit Suisse, as Josh Posaner reports. The two banks agreed to merge in March as part of an emergency deal targeted at avoiding a national financial crisis that could have had a knock-on effect globally.

Now read this: It's time to replace the Bank of England's governor with ChatGPT, writes my colleague Izabella Kaminska. THACI WAR CRIMES TRIAL BEGINS: The war crimes trial of former Kosovo President Hashim Thaci begins in The Hague today. Reuters has the details. ICYMI -- GERMAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS BACK VDL: Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany's opposition center-right CDU, said he favors a second term in office for Ursula von der Leyen. "She's doing her job well," Merz told Reuters. "If we have a chance to allow Ursula von der Leyen another term as EU Commission president coming from Germany -- yes, of course, then we are in favor of it."

Berlin backs the Spitzenkandidat: Germany's ruling alliance of Social-Democrats, Greens and Liberals have vowed to fight for the Spitzenkandidat system under which the Commission chief should be the lead candidate of the party that wins the biggest share of votes in the European Parliament election. If von der Leyen is nominated and her party comes in first, Berlin would back her for a second term, the three parties agreed. As Playbook flagged after the three parties signed a coalition treaty back in 2021, that gives the opposition EPP a strong incentive to nominate von der Leyen as its candidate for the 2024 race.

AGENDA

-- Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris ahead of their trip to China.

-- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken begins three-day visit to Brussels. -- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds press briefing ahead of NATO's foreign ministerial, 1 p.m.

-- Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans in Tirana; meets with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama; delivers keynote at international tourism forum. -- Commissioner Johannes Hahn in Valletta; meets Malta's Prime Minister Robert Abela and Minister for Finance and Employment Clyde Caruana. -- Commissioners Nicolas Schmit and Elisa Ferreira in Bucharest; meet Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ionel Ciuca, Minister of European Investments and Projects Ioan Marcel Bolos and Minister of Labour and Social Solidarity Marius-Constantin Budai.

-- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Romania; meets President Klaus Iohannis, Prime Minister Nicolae Ionel Ciuca, President of the Chamber of Deputies Marcel Ciolacu and Moldova's President Maia Sandu.

BRUSSELS CORNER

ELECTED: Aura Salla, a well-known face in Brussels and Meta's head of EU affairs, won a seat in the Finnish parliament in this weekend's election. Here's the celebratory tweet. BRUSSELS' FAVORITE POLITICIANS: Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib and her predecessor Sophie Wilmes are Brussels' most popular politicians, according to a Le Soir vote.

Last in the ranking? State Secretary for Asylum Nicole de Moor. TAXING TIMES: As of April 1, Belgian air passengers will have to pay a tax of between EUR2-EUR10 for taking short-haul flights.

Details here. LESS TAXING TIMES: Last year's temporary reduction of VAT on Belgian electricity and gas bills from 21 percent to 6 percent to compensate for soaring energy prices became permanent over the weekend. An excise duty will compensate for the reduced revenue.

WHAT'S NEW IN BRUSSELS: Spring is here, and there's lots happening ... World of Mind Museum: The new science museum, dedicated to illusions and perceptions, has opened in Tour & Taxis. Meise Botanical Garden: Two new glasshouses opened at the gardens over the weekend.

Moha Castle: One of Belgium's oldest medieval castles, located about an hour from Brussels, has reopened for the season. Happiness expo: This a r t exhibition at Brussels' Plein Publiek is all about making you happy. Royale Union Saint-Gilloise anniversary: Brussels football club USG celebrates its 125th anniversary with an exhibition at BRASS.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Hannah Neumann, Ciaran Cuffe and Dace Melbarde; Former MEPs Nigel Farage and Jonathan Bullock; President of North Macedonia Stevo Pendarovski. THANKS TO: Suzanne Lynch, Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecova and producer Grace Stranger. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Digital Bridge | China Direct | Berlin Bulletin | D.C.

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