Russia is “covering up” decline in its offensive capabilities with artillery

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russian troops are using artillery to compensate for their reduced offensive capabilities. Source: ISW report Details: Analysts note that Ukrainian and Russian sources discussed the slowdown in Russian offensive operations along the entire front line on 8 April, confirming ISW's assessment that the overall Russian offensive is nearing its culmination.

The collected and analysed data indicate that the dynamics of the use of combat artillery in Ukraine reflect the fact that Russian forces are using artillery to compensate for their reduced offensive capabilities. Analysts also add that Ukrainian forces are more precise in their targeting, but probably also benefit from being on the defensive in most areas, as offensive operations tend to require more artillery assets.

The ISW also reports that the Russian missile campaign aimed at destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure has finally failed, and Russia appears to have abandoned the effort. The institute's report also indicates that the Kremlin may be increasing legal penalties for terrorism-related crimes as part of a broader effort to encourage and create legal conditions for increased domestic repression.

Therefore, the Russian authorities are likely to continue to expand the list of organisations that they consider terrorist and extremist.

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In addition, experts say, the Russian Defence Ministry may be preparing conditions for a false flag attack in Sumy Oblast. "It is unclear what overarching effect the Kremlin intends to achieve with increasingly outlandish and ineffective Russian information operations alleging Ukrainian false flag attacks," the report reads.

ISW Key Takeaways for 8 April:

• Ukrainian and Russian sources discussed the decreased rate of Russian offensive operations along the entire frontline on 8 April, supporting ISW's assessment that the overall Russian offensive is approaching its culmination.
• The dynamics of battlefield artillery usage in Ukraine reflect the fact that Russian forces are using artillery to offset their degraded offensive capabilities.
• Russia's missile campaign to degrade Ukraine's unified energy infrastructure has failed definitively, and Russia appears to have abandoned the effort.
• The Kremlin is likely intensifying legal punishments for terrorism-related crimes as part of a larger effort for intensified domestic repressions.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) may be setting conditions for a false flag attack in Sumy Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces have continued to make gains around Bakhmut, and tensions between the Wagner Group and conventional Russian forces over responsibility for tactical gains in Bakhmut appear to be intensifying.
• Russian sources continued to speculate about the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, including hypothesizing about the possibility of a Ukrainian amphibious landing across the Kakhovka Reservoir.
• Ukrainian officials reported that 31 children returned to Ukraine after having been deported to Russia as Russian officials continue to discuss the adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

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