Russia unlikely to be capable of significant offensive in Ukraine this year

Russia is unlikely to be able to conduct a significant offensive in Ukraine this year due to a lack of ammunition and manpower, regardless of whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful. Source: CNN, quoting Avril Haines, US Director of National Intelligence, reported by European Pravda  Quote from Haines: "In fact, if Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial third-party ammunition supplies beyond existing deliveries from Iran and others, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even modest offensive operations."

Details: Haines has said that Putin has likely scaled back his short-term ambitions in Ukraine in order to consider a victory "to consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally".

Despite this assessment, Haines believes it is unlikely that Russia will agree to a pause this year unless political factors "change Putin's mindset". Haines has also noted that Russian troops are preparing "new defensive positions" ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive and that they "gained less territory in April than in any of the three previous months". Background: US General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes that it will not be easy for Ukraine and Russia to achieve their political goals by military means.

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Ben Wallace, Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom, said that the war will most likely continue into next year.

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