US Intelligence says Ukraine will not be able to achieve key offensive goal – WP

US Intelligence has stated that Ukraine will not be able to achieve its key objective - the city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast - in the course of counter-offensive operations. Source: The Washington Post, referring to sources familiar with the classified US Intelligence forecast, as European Pravda reported Details: The US Intelligence analysis is based on the fact that the Russian occupation forces are putting up fierce resistance and defending themselves with a wide system of minefields and trenches.

The Washington Post suggested that this assessment "is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals".

US officials said that Ukrainian troops advancing towards Melitopol from Robotyne, which is about 80 kilometres from the city, will remain several kilometres away. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. The Washington Post noted that in the first week of fighting, Ukraine suffered significant losses against Russia's well-prepared defence, and now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have decided to move forward with small units in different parts of the front to minimise losses.

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The article also notes that Ukraine has lost huge resources in the battle for Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, which has the Biden administration concerned that commitments in the east could undermine the potential for a counteroffensive in the south. The new intelligence estimate coincides with a secret February US forecast that indicated that equipment and troop shortages could mean a counteroffensive would be "very far" from achieving Ukraine's goal of breaking the land road to Crimea by August. This assessment was set out in a classified document posted on the social networking site Discord by US soldier Jack Teixeira.

US officials said that Washington is still hopeful that Kyiv will surprise sceptics and overcome the challenges. One Pentagon official said that Ukraine could continue its counteroffensive in the winter, when everything, including keeping soldiers warm and supplied with food and ammunition, becomes much more difficult. It will also depend on how much specialised cold-weather equipment and clothing they have available, the defence official said.

But Moscow could also outperform its rivals during winter military operations, as the Russians are capable of fighting in cold weather, the official added. Background: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said earlier that Ukraine does not feel pressure from the West during the counter-offensive. Earlier, the Pentagon said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had performed a miracle, driving the Russians into defence. 

In addition, the US defence department has recorded the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the counter-offensive but predicts that it will be a difficult and long fight.

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