How migrants became may determine election winner in Poland

One of the main topics in 2023 parliamentary campaign in Poland is again migration despite high inflation, a healthcare crisis, and Russian military aggression. In 2023, Poland became the EU leader in new residence permits issued to third-country nationals. Politicians are competing to see who they can protect Polish families from the "threat from outside."

So, we cannot rule out that the winner of the parliamentary elections will again depend on how strong anti-migrant sentiments are among the Poles. Although emotions are fueled by migration from Global South countries, Ukrainians may bear the brunt due to promises to "stop the influx of foreigners," according to an article by journalist Olena Babakova in Warsaw, Migrants 'Choose' Polish Government: How New Refugee Crisis Can Determine Election Winner. The ruling Law and Justice traditionally themed this campaign.

Since stories about transgender individuals, vilifying the image of John Paul II, or the commission that would investigate Russian influence failed, right-wing politicians turned their attention to migrants. The new EU Migration and Asylum Pact in Brussels triggered them. Although the document is quite general and speaks of European countries' solidarity in the face of migration challenges and voluntary refugee relocation, Law and Justice and state media advertise it as "imposing Muslim refugees on Poles" and "taking away national sovereignty."

To ensure that Poles do not forget about the "criminal Brussels authority," a referendum will be held on the same day as the parliamentary elections. The fourth question phrased as follows: "Do you support the acceptance of thousands of illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa, according to the compulsory relocation mechanism imposed on Poles by European bureaucracy?" Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski described this dilemma as follows: "Do you want us to stop being masters in our own country?"

Their behavior is driven by the desire not to lose the Eurosceptic right-wing electorate to the far-right Confederation. Ultimately, these concerns also led to sharp statements by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki regarding a grain crisis and an alliance with Germany. The second trigger for the anti-migrant campaign is the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border.

Although Central and Eastern European countries are not the target of citizens from Middle Eastern and Global South countries, authorities in Riga, Vilnius, and Warsaw have labeled migrants as a "demographic weapon." Their attempts to enter the EU as a hybrid war conducted by Minsk (and Moscow) against Europe. The issue of the Eastern migration route undoubtedly has a security dimension. It also has a human rights dimension - refugees mostly come from countries where labour migration to the EU is restricted or blocked.

The multi-day attempts to cross the border have already cost the lives of 49 people and the health of hundreds. The situation at the border is morally questionable for another reason. If entry is prohibited for poor citizens of Global South countries, wealthier individuals can easily buy multiple Schengen visas from corrupt Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials.

Pro-government propaganda is trying to shift the blame to visa centers (and former Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who signed an agreement with them). Currently, the main victims are the migrants themselves: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has drastically limited the issuance of visas "pending the clarification of all circumstances." It is not surprising that Polish political parties mostly view migration as a threat to national security in their election programmes.

You will hardly find candidates of migrant origin on the electoral lists.

Although over the past decade, over 45,000 foreigners have been naturalised in Poland, only a few can make it to parliament.

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