Losses of Russian equipment near Avdiivka are much higher than near Vuhledar – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that the Russians have lost much more equipment near Avdiivka than they did near Vuhledar earlier this year. Source: the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Details: The heavy losses of Russian equipment near Avdiivka are likely to undermine Russia's offensive capabilities in the long term.

However, experts note that the Russian command will likely try to compensate for the loss of their equipment, especially armoured vehicles.

The widespread losses and lack of Russian equipment in the first year of the full-scale invasion significantly limited Russia's ability to conduct effective manoeuvrable mechanised warfare during the Russian military's offensive in the winter and spring 2023, leading to further losses during the haphazard mechanised assaults near Vuhledar in January and February 2023. The heavy losses in the city of Vuhledar likely prevented Russian commanders from launching sustained mechanised offensives in other parts of Ukraine later in the offensive in winter-spring 2023.

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The recent losses of Russian equipment near Avdiivka appear to be much greater than the previous losses near Vuhledar. It remains unclear whether the prospect of further heavy equipment losses will deter the Russian command from launching another series of large mechanised assaults near Avdiivka.

Russia has gradually mobilised elements of its defence industrial base to address the equipment shortages, but has not done so on a scale even remotely sufficient to compensate for the cumulative losses of Russian equipment in Ukraine.

The recent losses of Russian equipment near Avdiivka are likely to further exacerbate the shortage of Russian equipment and reverse any progress made by the Russian military in addressing degraded mechanised manoeuvre warfare capabilities.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 26 October:

• Heavy Russian equipment losses around Avdiivka will likely undermine Russian offensive capabilities over the long term.
• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian officials denied reports that Ukraine suspended a corridor for civilian vessels in the Black Sea on 26 October.
• An amendment to the Russian citizenship law allowing for the revocation of naturalised Russian citizenship came into force on 26 October, providing the Russian government with a new mechanism to coerce migrants into Russian military service.
• A senior Hamas delegation travelled to Moscow and met with Russian and Iranian officials on 26 October.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Several Russian opposition outlets reported that Russian defence industrial base (DIB) companies continue to use Western components supplied through intermediaries to manufacture missiles to use against Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to forcibly indoctrinate Ukrainian youth into Russian culture and identity through the expansion of military-patriotic educational programmes.

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