Russian offensive on Avdiivka fails – ISW

Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast failed on 13 October. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Details: Military analysts said that the Kremlin is trying to present its offensive operations around Avdiivka and other local actions as seizing the operational initiative in Ukraine.

Russian sources claimed that Russian troops continued to attack areas north and south of Avdiivka, and geolocation footage released on 12 and 13 October showed that troops had advanced south of Krasnohorivka (5 kilometres north of Avdiivka) and southeast of Pervomaiske (11 kilometres southwest of Avdiivka).

Russian sources have also published contradictory reports about the Russians having taken control of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, although the ISW has found no evidence that Russian forces were in control of the plant at the time of publication. The Ukrainian military reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing to repel Russian attacks around Avdiivka.

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A Russian military blogger noted that Ukrainian forces are using minefields to slow down Russian advances on the Avdiivka front.

A Russian volunteer soldier stated that worn-out barrels reduce the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka. The ISW has previously observed complaints about Russian artillery from Russian sources. The Russian volunteer soldier said that Russian forces could "squeeze the [Ukrainian] perimeter" by seizing less fortified Ukrainian territory near Avdiivka, but expressed concern that Russian generals would misinterpret these limited advances and attempt to accelerate their offensive on Avdiivka.

He also noted that such a misinterpretation could lead to Russian troops "pounding on concrete" fortifications until they run out of assets. Moreover, military analysts believe that the Russian military command is limiting the discussion of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in the information space. They are likely trying to adapt to previous information shocks and control any narratives that emerge in the Russian information space around the operations.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 13 October:

Ongoing Russian offensive operations throughout Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on 13 October reportedly faced setbacks around the city.
The Russian military command appears to be restricting discussion of the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in the Russian information space.
The Kremlin is likely attempting to frame Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and other localised efforts as Russian forces seizing the operational initiative in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 13 October.
Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure facilities with drone and missile strikes, as well as localised cross-border raids.
Russian authorities arrested four lawyers who represent prominent opposition figures on extremism charges on 13 October, likely to set conditions for the upcoming 2024 Russian presidential elections.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblasts border area and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced in various sectors of the front.
A Ukrainian military intelligence official reported that Russian forces are struggling to equip newly-formed military formations.
Ukrainian partisans reportedly targeted Russian military assets in rear areas in southern Ukraine on 12 and 13 October.

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