What risks does Slovakia's new government pose to EU and Ukraine?

On 25 October, a new government was presented in Slovakia, led by the Smer-SD leader. Robert Fico marks his fourth term as prime minister. Key ministerial positions in this government were given to individuals known for their criticism of EU policies, including those concerning Ukraine.

To what extent Slovak politics will shift and whether the new government has officials willing to maintain constructive relations with Ukraine, you can read in an article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor - Government of Revenge and Friendship with Orban: What to Expect from Slovakia's New Leadership. The biggest surprise (and disappointment for some) was the final decision of President Zuzana Caputova, who approved all the proposed candidates, except for the nominee for the Minister of Environment, Rudolf Huliak. The list of ministerial candidates was submitted to her last week.

The head of state had promised to use her veto power to prevent appointing those who could not fulfill their ministerial duties. So, what should Ukraine expect from Fico's government? All Slovak ministries crucial from Kyiv's perspective fall under the quota of Smer-SD.

Particularly important, given the "grain crisis," is the Ministry of Agriculture. Its head, Richard Takac, has promised to compel the EU to review its agricultural policies. Therefore, we cannot rule out that the compromise agreed upon by Ukraine and Slovakia on grain and other agricultural exports may be cancelled by the new government.

The Defence Ministry will lead Robert Kalinak, who worked in Fico's previous government and is a subject of various investigations related to the previous government's activities. However, from Ukraine's perspective, Kalinak may not be a worse option. On the other hand, the position of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, appointed to openly anti-Ukrainian Juraj Blanar, is different.

An anti-Ukrainian politician in this role could significantly worsen relations. Kyiv will have to respond to every accusation he makes (as is happening now in the dialogue with the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Peter Szijjarto). Blanar's appointment indicates Fico's plans from the government's first days to conflict with Brussels and, of course, with Kyiv.

However, there is a chance to avoid the worst-case scenario. A EuroPravda source points out the appointment of Marek Estok, the Deputy Foreign Minister - a professional diplomat who has worked in the Ukrainian Embassy. Nevertheless, we cannot recommend to be overly hopeful about this scenario.

Further appointments in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be significant. There are no real expectations of economic success from the new government. After all, this is Fico's fourth term as prime minister, so one could look at the past and predct how his new government will work.

We can identify two main goals of his prime ministership: to stop and dismantle all criminal cases against Fico's subordinates and to seek revenge for his previous humiliating dismissal as prime minister. In such a situation, it is safe to predict that the new government's priorities will not be economic reforms but rather the fight against the judiciary, freedom of speech, and civil organisations - all of which Viktor Orban successfully implemented in Hungary. The Hungarian prime minister celebrates victory, as he now has an ally to stand up against Brussels.

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