How elections changed dynamics in Serbia and how it will affect its foreign course
The results of Serbia's parliamentary elections on 17 December have turned out to be very favourable for President Aleksandar Vucic. As expected, the main battle was for control over the capital. Vucic resorted to the mass import of voters from abroad to prevent it, which triggered protests. Read more about the after-election crisis in Serbia in the article by EuroPravda's editor Yurii Panchenko - Coalition with Orban and Reptilians in Reserve: How Elections in Serbia Strengthened President Vucic.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has strengthened his positions following the 17 December elections. Firstly, his Serbian Progressive Party (Vucic recently resigned as nominal leader) has improved its results and no longer needs coalition partners. Secondly, the Union of Hungarians of Vojvodina, a party oriented towards Vucic's close friend Viktor Orban, is expected to strengthen the coalition.
Orban's foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, actively campaigned for this in Serbia. Vucic's third victory is the division among pro-Russian opposition forces. However, his weak point in these elections was the capital.
In Belgrade, the ratings of the pro-Western opposition (the party Serbia without Violence) were considered at least similar, often higher than those of Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party. Losing control of the capital would have been a powerful blow to Vucic. Therefore, most of the falsifications were aimed at preventing the opposition from winning.
Voters from neighbouring countries, especially from the Republic of Srpska - part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, were actively involved. According to the opposition's estimates, up to 40,000 voters from the Republic of Srpska were brought to the capital. Thus, the first place in the capital was also taken by the party of the Serbian president.
It will easily be able to form a majority in Belgrade along with the Socialists and one of the pro-Russian opposition parties. That is why the pro-Western opposition decided to fight for results in the capital. On 18 December, the opposition held a massive rally outside the Central Election Commission. The leaders of Serbia without Violence, Marinika Tepic and Miroslav Aleksic, announced a hunger strike.
During the night of 19 December, there were attempts to storm the Central Election Commission, and even (according to the Serbian authorities) its chairman was beaten up. The Serbian opposition promises to continue protests until the government meets its demands. Vucic only offers a recount on individual precincts in Belgrade (which clearly suits his interests in prolonging the elections as much as possible).
The question is whether the opposition will be able to mobilise its supporters for a long-term protest, especially since Serbs have no experience of winter protests. Despite observers documenting numerous violations in these elections, including media bias, undue influence of the president, and irregularities during voting, such as voter bribery, the non-recognition of these elections is not even being discussed. To some extent, it can be said that the West is currently not interested in a change of power in Serbia, even despite obvious dissatisfaction with Belgrade's foreign policy.
Vucic's own strategy in these elections shows that he does not rule out steps towards the West: approving sanctions against Russia and compromising with Kosovo. However, it is too early to talk about the defeat of the Serbian opposition. The new elections in Belgrade are still likely.
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