How Western Balkan friends could complicate Ukraine's path to EU

A miracle happened yesterday: the European Commission agreed to open negotiations on Ukraine's EU accession. Current events are a great reason to celebrate a diplomatic victory. It is important, however, to realise that a new challenge may await Ukraine ahead.

It could worsen Hungarian resistance (which will never disappear) and may even become more serious than Orban. This problem is the Western Balkan states. Read more in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, EuroPravda's editor - Why Western Balkans Could Become Crucial Obstacle on Ukraine's path to EU.

The history of the EU integration of Western Balkan states has been ongoing for over 20 years. In the summer of 2003, all the regional countries received recognition of their European perspective. The only one state though, Croatia, succeeded and became a full-fledged EU member in 2013.

But most importantly, all the other states in these 20 years have not shown the expected progress of candidate countries. Moreover, the progress of all Balkan states towards the EU has now come to a halt. We have published the Eurointegration-2023 ranking based on official EU data.

This study evaluates the speed of reforms in Ukraine and other countries. In all Balkan states, the situation is catastrophic. It looks that over 20 years, they have lost faith to join the EU.

Even with an open negotiation process, they have halted the adaptation of their legislation to European standards. You might ask, what does this have to do with Ukraine? Its progress is now dependent on the Balkans.

This trend is only growing. Before the 2023 summit, Kyiv felt this particularly strongly when representatives of the Austrian government issued an ultimatum: they would not support the decision to start negotiations with Ukraine until other EU countries agreed to do so with the "Austrian favourite" in the Balkans -- Bosnia and Herzegovina. Austrians and politicians of some other countries in the region tend to say that Ukraine's EU accession is possible only together with one of the Balkan countries.

It is "unfair," supposedely, that Balkan countries, which have been waiting for 20 years, will remain there, while Kyiv will quickly achieve its coveted membership. If Ukraine continues to genuinely implement reforms and if European integration becomes a priority for all political forces, as we often see lately, then Ukraine will outpace the Balkans fairly quickly. So, the Balkan issue could become very real for Ukraine even in a year or two.

Perhaps, one of the Balkan countries will show a high level of Eurointegration now and join Ukraine on the fast track to EU accession? Unfortunately, we do not have any reasons to hope so. What does it mean for Ukraine?

Ukraine must realise that the challenge may come not only from its reforms and the speed of their implementation but also from the situation in other countries. Ukraine can and should collaborate with these countries and try to revive their belief in joining the EU. As Ukraine starts accession negotiations, it must actively work in several European capitals (with friends of Balkan countries, especially in Vienna, Ljubljana, and Rome), convincing them that when Ukraine is ready to join, it should become the EU's new member, even if the Balkans, largely due to their own fault, are still in a state of uncertainty.

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