ISW: Russia regains strategic initiative on battlefield

The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russian troops have regained the initiative in the entire theatre of operations and will be able to conduct offensive operations whenever and wherever they want as long as they hold the initiative. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Details:ISW military analysts said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Russia is preparing a new offensive that will begin in late May or summer 2024.

Zelenskyy has also said that the Ukrainian military has a clear plan to counter Russian forces.

The ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have regained the initiative in the entire theatre after Ukraine's counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 and that Russia is likely to be able to determine the time, place and scale of future offensives in Ukraine. If Ukraine conducts active defence across the entire theatre in 2024, it will be ceding the strategic initiative to Russia. Russia will be able to manoeuvre its reserves and determine how and where to allocate resources, forcing Ukraine to take defensive actions as long as Russia holds the strategic initiative.

Ukrainian forces can deprive Russia of these capabilities if they have sufficient means to challenge Russia's initiative and conduct their own offensive operations in 2024.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 26 February:

• Sweden will join NATO following Hungary's formal approval of Sweden's accession bid on 26 February.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on 26 February that officially re-establish the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts (MMD and LMD respectively), codifying major Russian military restructuring and reform efforts.
• The formal transfer of regions previously under the responsibility of the Northern Fleet is likely part of a wider Russian effort to re-establish military district commands as the primary headquarters for the Russian ground forces while reassigning naval assets to the Russian Navy, as ISW previously reported.
• The re-creation of the MMD and LMD supports the parallel objectives of consolidating control over Russian operations in Ukraine in the short-to-medium term and preparing for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO in the long term.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on 25 February that Russia is preparing a new offensive that will start in late May or summer 2024, consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian forces have regained the theatre-wide initiative and will be able to pursue offensive operations when and where they choose as long as they hold the initiative.
• Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov is continuing a recent campaign to engage with Russian military personnel following the Russian capture of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and reportedly visited a command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army in Ukraine.
• Over 20 heads of state, including 15 European Union (EU) leaders, met in Paris on 26 February to discuss ramping up ammunition supplies to Ukraine.
• Germany announced a new military aid package to Ukraine on 26 February.
• Transnistrian sources reportedly told Russian independent outlet Verstka that Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, is not planning to ask to join Russia during the Congress of Deputies in Tiraspol on 28 February.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed gains near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• Russia reportedly imported almost EUR450 million (about US£488 million) worth of sanctioned "sensitive" European goods, including weapons technology, between January and September 2023.

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