Ukrainians' opinions divide on what to consider victory over Russia – survey

A survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre sociological service has indicated that 85% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win the war, but they are divided in their views on what a victory over Russia should look like. Source: results of the survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre from 19 to 25 January Details: The survey showed that among those who believe in victory, 38% of respondents believe that it is the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the country's borders as of January 2014.

Another 27% consider the destruction of the Russian army and an uprising/collapse within Russia to be a victory.

In addition, 13% of respondents would consider the restoration of the status quo as of 23 February 2022 a victory.

7% would consider the victory to be the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except for occupied Crimea, and 4% would consider the end of the war even if the Russian army remained in control of the territories that were captured as a result of a full-scale invasion (after 24 February 2022). In general, 85% of respondents believe in Ukraine's victory in this war (from 78% of residents of Ukraine's east to 88.5% of residents of Ukraine's west), while 8.5% do not believe in it (from 5.5% in Ukraine's west to 13% in Ukraine's east). Regarding the timing of the victory, among those who believe in the victory, 20% believe that it will occur by the end of this year, while in February-March 2023, 50% believed that the victory would come by the end of 2023.

40% of respondents believe that it will come in 1-2 years (26% believed so in February-March 2023).

14% (now) and 7% (in February-March 2023) believe that the victory will take from 3 to 5 years. At the same time, 3% (now) and 1% (in February-March 2023) suppose it will be in 5 years and more.

1% (now) and 0.4% (February-March 2023) believe that victory is unlikely to happen in their lifetime. There is also an increase in the number of those who do not know when they can expect Ukraine to win (22% and 15% respectively).

For reference: The survey was conducted from 19 to 25 January 2024 face-to-face in 22 oblasts and Kyiv (in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts - only in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and not subject to combat actions). A total of 2,000 respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%.

Background: A YouGov survey for the wider study Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine showed that support for Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, but almost two years after the beginning of the full-scale invasion, only 10% believe it can defeat Russia.

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