ISW warns of danger of sudden breakthrough by Russian troops

The shortage of ammunition and military equipment caused by delays in US aid could leave the current front lines in Ukraine very vulnerable. This could be exploited by Russian forces for a sudden breakthrough. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The ISW analysts said that Ukraine's prioritisation of areas of the front line which are most at risk from intense Russian offensives could create vulnerabilities elsewhere.

The institute's experts warned that Russian forces could take advantage of this to make a sudden and unexpected advance. A breakthrough could happen if the supply of weapons to the Ukrainian military continues to decline.  They also noted that the fact that Russia retains the initiative along the entire line of contact increases the risks of such a development, allowing Russian military commanders to increase or decrease the intensity of operations on any part of the front line at their discretion.

The ISW analysts stressed that Ukrainian forces are likely trying to mitigate the problems caused by the lack of ammunition and are identifying priority areas on the front line.  However, military analysts are convinced that this has risks for the Ukrainian forces.  On 12 March, the German news outlet Der Spiegel published an interview with unnamed Ukrainian commanders who stated that almost all Ukrainian units and formations are suffering from a shortage of ammunition and military equipment.

Der Spiegel noted that Ukrainian units can only hold their current positions if Russian troops do not use their full capacity to attack. 

Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, warned that there is a threat of Russian units advancing deeper into Ukrainian formations in certain areas of the front line.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 13 March:  

• Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate.
• The rate of Russian advance west of Avdiivka has recently slowed, although Russian forces likely retain the capability to intensify offensive operations in the area at a moment of their choosing.
• Ukrainian actors conducted large-scale drone strikes against energy infrastructure and military assets within Russia on the night of 12-13 March.
• The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gutul, claimed on 13 March that her recent meetings with Russian officials in Russia led to deepening economic ties between Gagauzia and Russia, which the Kremlin likely hopes to exploit as part of its wider efforts to destabilise Moldova and prevent Moldova from joining the EU.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled another limited cross-border incursion by the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the night of 11-12 March and the morning of 13 March.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline on 13 March.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to censor protests of wives and mothers of mobilised soldiers ahead of the Russian presidential election.

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