Russia decides to protect its Black Sea Fleet – ISW

The Russian Defence Ministry has made clear its intention to shield the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) from Ukrainian attacks and has possibly replaced the Black Sea Fleet Commander as part of this move. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Details: ISW analysts believe Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's stance on protecting the Black Sea Fleet creates an environment where Shoigu can either take credit if the BSF is more effective in defending itself against Ukrainian attacks or blame other commanders should the BSF fail in its efforts.

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Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea have forced the BSF to relocate most of its naval assets from its main base in the Russian-occupied city of Sevastopol (Crimea) to smaller bases with less capability in the port city of Novorossiysk (Russia) and elsewhere.

The Strategic Communications Centre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (StratCom) reported that Ukrainian strikes had disabled about 33% of the BSF warships as of early February 2024, including 24 ships and one submarine. Shoigu visited the Black Sea Fleet command post in occupied Sevastopol (Crimea), where he was briefed on Ukrainian operations and the effectiveness of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. He stressed that the Black Sea Fleet must conduct daily counter-attack exercises and ordered that the Black Sea Fleet install additional weapons, including large-calibre systems and machine guns, to strengthen Russian defences.

In addition, Shoigu heard a report from Russian Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk, who, some Russian sources say, has recently replaced Admiral Viktor Sokolov as commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

However, ISW cannot confirm this claim.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 17 March:

  • French President Emmanuel Macron underlined the necessity for European countries to continue supporting a Ukrainian victory against Russia in order to ensure Ukrainian and European security.
  • The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU), Special Forces (SOF), and Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of 16 to 17 March.
  • Unspecified actors launched a drone at a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova, on 17 March amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilising Moldova from within.
  • All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces reportedly seized a Russian administrative building in the Belgorod Oblast border area amid continued cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) signalled that it intends to protect the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) against Ukrainian strikes and may have replaced the BSF commander as part of this effort.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
  • Russian authorities continue to militarise children in occupied Ukraine as part of efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and create a resource for Russia's future force generation needs.

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