Slovakia's presidential election: What consequences could sensational victory of a pro-Western candidate have?

Elections in Slovakia have become sensational for the second time in six months. Last September, it was a negative sensation when the parliamentary elections were won by the anti-Western party Smer-SD despite exit poll predictions, which led to a reversal in Bratislava's foreign policy. This time, the winner of the first round of the presidential elections in Slovakia has also come as surprise.

A pro-Western candidate, former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivan Korcok, has come in the first place. Thus, the independent candidate Korcok is the favourite for the second round on 6 April. Read more about whether the victory of a pro-Western candidate in the Slovak presidential election could slow down Slovakia's transformation into "another Hungary" in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor in his article - Fico's first defeat: Why was the first round of Slovakia's presidential elections sensational?

To understand Korcok's success in the first round, we should remember that almost all sociological surveys conducted during the campaign predicted a victory for Peter Pellegrini - in the first round with a slight margin, and in the second round with a significant one. Analysing the survey results, Slovak political analysts has noted that for Ivan Korcok to win overall, he not only had to win in the first round but also had to outperform his opponent by at least 4-5%. And it has happened: the leader leads by 5.5%.

Why does the first-round result differ so much from the surveys? It is highly likely because of the high, for Slovakia, voter turnout. Following the first-round election results, Korcok's opponent, Parliamentary Speaker Peter Pellegrini, stated that most people in Slovakia want a head of state "who will not drag Slovakia into war but will talk about peace."

Thus, Pellegrini appeals to the voters of Stefan Harabin, who finished third in the first round with 11.74%. Unlike Pellegrini, who prefers to talk about peace and does not question Slovakia's NATO membership, Harabin is a typical "Putin's friend." Harabin's high result, which he has demonstrated in two consecutive presidential elections, indicates anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian sentiments among a significant number of Slovaks.

This was the stake that the current Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, bet on in last year's elections. Harabin's result in the first round, however, have also turned out to be slightly lower than predicted. But the problem is that Peter Pellegrini appears too pro-Western to the voters of Harabin.

Most likely, Pellegrini will have to significantly radicalise his rhetoric in the upcoming two weeks to gain support from Harabin's voters. But whether this will lead to the desired result is unknown. Changing the situation in two weeks will not be easy.

Moreover, the Western world will celebrate Easter next weekend, and accordingly, political activity will be forced to freeze. Moreover, Korcok will face a massive smear campaign from the ruling coalition. They will try to portray him as a "war candidate" who will betray the country's interests at the West's command.

But Ivan Korcok, has debunked one of the myths about himself. Slovakia is a parliamentary republic where the president's powers are quite limited. Even under such conditions, the current elections are of utmost important.

Pellegrini's victory will allow Fico to monopolise his power in the country, accelerating Slovakia's falling into authoritarianism.

On the other hand, the victory of a pro-Western candidate will become a powerful pressure factor on Fico's government.

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