ISW: Russia is trying to challenge Armenia's sovereignty

The Russian military has detained another Russian citizen in Armenia. In this way, Russia is likely trying to establish military and political power over Armenia and challenge the country's sovereignty. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: This happened against the backdrop of a long-term deterioration in Armenian-Russian relations.

On 9 April, the Armenian branch of the international human rights organisation Helsinki Civic Assembly in Vanadzor reported that Russian military police at the Russian 102nd military base in Gyumri in Armenia had detained Russian citizen Anatoly Shchetin. The man was detained for desertion and is to be forcibly transferred to Russia. Helsinki Civic Assembly lawyer Ani Chatinyan said that the organisation had filed a complaint with the Armenian Prosecutor General's Office and that Russian law enforcement agencies have no right to detain people in Armenia and should hand the case over to Armenian law enforcement agencies.

The Armenian General Prosecutor's Office reported that it had processed the Helsinki Civic Assembly's report in accordance with its procedures. Russian military police at the 102nd military base previously detained a Russian citizen in Armenia for desertion in December 2023. In February 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reacted to the December 2023 arrest and stated that the Armenian authorities were investigating the incident and that Armenia "cannot tolerate illegal actions on [its] territory".

To  quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 9 April:

• Russian state media highlighted Russia and China's joint effort to combat perceived Western "dual containment" targeting Russia and China during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on 9 April.
• US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on 9 April that it transferred roughly a brigade's worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Ukraine on 4 April.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) is likely responsible for a drone strike against the Borisoglebsk Airbase in Voronezh Oblast overnight on 8 to 9 April.
• Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to employ virulently anti-migrant rhetoric and calls for xenophobic domestic policies, but in doing so are exposing the inherent hypocrisy in Russia's treatment of its own indigenous ethnic minority communities.
• The Kremlin will likely be able to leverage a new agreement signed by the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, and a state-owned Russian bank to further its efforts to destabilise Moldovan society, attack Moldova's democratic government, and prevent Moldova's accession to the European Union (EU).
• Russia is reportedly considering creating a new ministry for youth policy and patriotic education, likely as part of an ongoing attempt to instil pro-Kremlin and Kremlin-approved ideology in Russia's next generation.
• Russian military authorities in Armenia detained another Russian citizen in Armenia, likely in an effort to assert military and political power over Armenia and to challenge Armenia's sovereignty amid a continued deterioration of Armenian-Russian relations.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, west of Avdiivka, and south and southwest of Donetsk City on 9 April.
• Kremlin officials continue efforts to ease public fears about another possible wave of partial mobilisation.
• The Russian occupation regime in Crimea is systematically persecuting clergy and parishes affiliated with the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) in occupied Crimea.

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