Lack of air defence systems leads to slow but steady Russian victories on battlefield – ISW

The ISW assesses that scattered and inconsistent air defence cover along the frontline has contributed to Russia's increased use of guided and unguided aerial bombs. Russian ground forces are taking advantage of their ability to conduct airstrikes against Ukrainian frontline positions to slowly but surely make gains. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian forces used aerial bombs for tactical effect during the capture of Avdiivka in mid-February.

Military analysts indicate that it appears that Russian forces are using this tactic again during their offensive operations near Chasiv Yar.

Russian strikes have forced Ukraine to make difficult decisions between providing air defence for large population centres in the rear and active areas on the frontline, and Russia appears to be using the degraded cover of Ukrainian air defence to try to disrupt Ukraine's energy grid and limit Ukraine's defence and industrial capabilities.

To quote ISW's Key Takeaways on 11 April:

• Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 10 to 11 April that caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine needs more Patriot air defence batteries to protect both Ukraine's population centres and frontline areas.
• The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) adopted a new mobilisation law on 11 April, a significant step in addressing Ukraine's manpower challenges amid growing manpower constraints in Ukrainian units defending on the frontline.
• US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli reported that EUCOM and NATO are strengthening their ability to respond to the "chronic threat" that Russia poses to global stability and European security in hopes of deterring future Russian aggression against NATO.
• Ukraine and Latvia signed a bilateral security agreement on 11 April providing for long-term Latvian assistance and security commitments to Ukraine.
• Russian authorities conducted a counterterrorism operation and reportedly killed two suspected terrorists in the Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria on 11 April.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, in the direction of Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area on 11 April.
• Russian exiled opposition outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on 11 April that Russian courts have commuted sentences in over half of all criminal cases against Russian veterans and active-duty servicemen due to military service in Ukraine.

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