Why new elections in Poland did not bring Tusk any triumph

The first round of local elections took place in Poland on 7 April. Neither the opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) nor the political force of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition won these elections, but they also did not lose. The elections have taken place given numerous disputes with Ukraine.

Read more about whether it is possible to expect a reduction in tension between Warsaw and Kyiv after the elections in the article by Marta Ligus and Maksym Kostetskyi? Center for Policy Making - Tusk's semi-victory: What municipal elections in Poland showed and why they are important for Ukraine. On 7 April, the Poles elected nearly 40,000 municipal and city councilors, 824 mayors and 107 city presidents.

There were over 200,000 candidates on the lists. Theoretically, the main task for local officials in Poland is not political confrontation but caring for the community welfare, solving economic issues... However, at the parliamentary elections in October 2023, the polarisation of Polish society and a clear division into political camps became evident.

Since then, everything has become politically charged: from charities to choosing a gas station to buy a hot dog. Five main groups fight with one another to gain power. The local electoral campaign, compared to the parliamentary one (October 2023) have finished more or less calmly.

All politicians were tired of the parliamentary elections and most of the finances had already been spent on the. On top of that, the campaigns for the European Parliament and the presidential elections in Poland are still ahead.

29 million voters were registered to vote in the municipal elections in Poland and the turnout was 51.5%. According to the final vote count, Law and Justice generally wins the elections to the voivodeship councils with 34.27%.

PiS even received more votes than exit polls had predicted. All this gives grounds to speak about the key result of these elections - PiS remains a powerful political force that has recovered from the transition to the opposition. The devil is in the details because, despite the best result in the country, PiS wins only in six voivodeships (previously the party had a majority in nine voivodeships).

Instead, Civic Coalition has won ten voivodeships and the majority of the voivodeship councils, thereby strengthening its representation in local government (previously they had a majority in only six voivodeships). Moreover, Civic Coalition strengthens its support, gaining 30.59% compared to 26.9% in 2018. Tusk's political force has gained less than sociologists had predicted.

And even less than exit polls had predicted. And most importantly, the bloc of the current prime minister failed to surpass its principal opponents from PiS. So, it is also impossible to call Tusk the winner of these elections.

The results of the local elections should not affect Ukrainian-Polish relations in terms of cooperation between cities and regions. Instead, a potential threat is the further growth of the influence of the anti-Ukrainian and populist party Confederation. A party that the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen singled out at the European People's Party Congress in Bucharest as a political force that is a threat to Europe and aims to trample European values and destroy them.

Ukrainians waited for the end of the electoral process in Poland, hoping that after the completion of the local elections, the Polish authorities would finally be able to address the resolution of conflicts in relations with Ukraine.

But, most of all, what Ukraine can hope for is that the end of the elections may prompt the Polish government to expedite the search for a compromise with the Ukrainian side.

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