Russia promotes Compatriots Living Abroad system for further aggression and hybrid operations – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russia is promoting the Compatriots Living Abroad system to justify its further aggression and hybrid operations. Source: ISW Quote: "The Kremlin appears to be developing a system to legalise the status of Russia's so-called 'compatriots abroad', likely as part of its efforts to set information conditions to justify further aggression and hybrid operations abroad as 'protecting' Russia's compatriots."

Details: Analysts note that Yevgeny Primakov, Director General of the Russian Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Compatriots Living Abroad and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo), said in an interview with the Kremlin-aligned Russian news agency TASS that Rossotrudnichestvo is developing an Electronic Compatriot Card programme that will allow "compatriots" abroad to access Russian public services, work in Russia and even apply for Russian citizenship in the future.

Primakov said Russia was preparing to launch a pilot version of the programme in several neighbouring countries and could start issuing the first such cards by the end of 2024. The official estimated that Russia has between 20 and 40 million "compatriots" abroad. However, analysts point out it is unclear what definition of "compatriot abroad" Primakov is using.

The ISW added that Moldovan and Ukrainian officials had previously warned that Russian officials were using Russkiy Doms (Russian House, foreign representative offices of Rossotrudnichestvo, which supposedly aim to promote the Russian language and culture) to promote Russian propaganda and conduct subversive activities abroad. Rossotrudnichestvo has been working on the Electronic Compatriot Card project since at least 2021 but has not yet launched the programme. In June 2023, Primakov said that Rossotrudnichestvo plans to open "certification centres" in Russian House offices around the world, where "compatriots" will be able to confirm their identity as part of the application process.

To quote ISW's Key Takeaways on 22 May:

• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) proposed on 21 May that the Russian government reassess Russia's maritime borders in the Baltic Sea so that these borders "correspond to the modern geographical situation."
• Kremlin and Russian MoD officials denied on 22 May that Russia is planning to change the Russian maritime border, but invertedly implied that the Russian government is considering undertaking some "security" measures in the Baltic Sea.
• The Kremlin appears to be developing a system to legalise the status of Russia's so-called "compatriots abroad," likely as part of its efforts to set information conditions to justify further aggression and hybrid operations abroad as "protecting" Russia's compatriots.
• United Kingdom (UK) Defence Minister Grant Shapps stated on 22 May that US and UK intelligence have evidence that the People's Republic of China (PRC) "is now or will be" providing lethal military assistance to Russia, a statement that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan questioned.
• Western officials warned that Russian intelligence services intend to increase sabotage activities and other hybrid operations against NATO member countries.
• US Space Command reported on 21 May that Russia recently launched an anti-satellite weapon, the most recent report that Russia intends to field disruptive anti-satellite capabilities.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan indirectly accused Russia and directly accused Belarus of helping Azerbaijan to prepare for the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, against the backdrop of deteriorating Armenian-Russian relations.
• Ukrainian forces recently recaptured territory near Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Vovchansk, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Velyka Novosilka.

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