UK intelligence assesses impact of Ukraine's recent successful attacks in Crimea

UK Defence Intelligence believes that recent successful Ukrainian attacks have led to an overall deterioration in Russia's ability to defend the airspace around Crimea. Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 18 May, as reported by European Pravda On 14 May 2024, Ukrainian military forces carried out strikes on Russian military targets, resulting in the destruction of elements of the S-400 anti-air system at Belbek airfield, including a radar system and launchers. 

In addition, at least two MiG-31BM aircraft were reported to have been destroyed on the ground. 

This marks the fourth instance in the past month when Russian air defence in Crimea has suffered losses. Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully targeted the Ai-Petri radar station and Dzhankoi airfield.  The combined effect of these strikes has led to an overall deterioration in Russia's ability to defend the airspace around Crimea, while also demonstrating Ukraine's capability to impact Russian air defence operations, the review emphasises.

It is highly likely that this will force Russia to disperse its air assets or risk losing more aircraft, as well as relocate air defence systems from other areas. 

The reduction in A-50 aircraft coverage and their dispersal from Crimean airfields will likely lead to an increase in flight hours and frequency of fighter jet sorties to fill coverage gaps, resulting in greater maintenance challenges for their fleets.

Background:

• Earlier, UK intelligence noted that it is unlikely that Russia has built up sufficient combat power to capture Kharkiv without deploying additional forces to the region.
• In a previous review, UK Defence Intelligence analysed how Russian missile attacks are destroying Ukraine's cultural, historical and religious heritage.

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