Russia may have formed new army to deploy in Ukraine – ISW

Russia may have formed another combined arms army for deployment in Ukraine. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Quote: "The Russian military is currently undergoing large-scale reforms, however, including the creation of new combined arms army level formations, and Ukrainian sources' references to a '51st Army' may constitute an early indicator that Russia has formed another combined arms army for deployment to Ukraine."

Details: Colonel Yurii Povkh, the spokesperson for the Kharkiv Operational Strategic Group, stated on 23 June that the Russian military plans to deploy elements of the "9th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army" toward the Kharkiv area.

Povkh mentioned that Russian units have been moved from Kherson Oblast and other unspecified locations to reinforce the Kharkiv front. Similarly, Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group, reported on 25 June that Russian forces aim to transfer elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) and the "9th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army" to Kharkiv to make up for significant Russian losses.

ISW recently noted reports that the Russian forces have transferred elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 9th Motorised Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) from areas west and southwest of the city of Donetsk to the Kharkiv front. However, there has been no reporting on the Russian "51st Army".

The statements from Ukrainian officials imply that the Russian forces might have subordinated the 9th Motorised Rifle Brigade to the potentially revived WWII-era "51st Army".

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 25 June:

• Two major international bodies - the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) - announced decisions on 25 June confirming Russia's long-term perpetration of war crimes and human rights violations in Ukraine.
• Russia and Venezuela signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at countering "coercive measures", likely to demonstrate to the West that the Kremlin holds influence in the Western hemisphere.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast on 25 June and recently conducted strikes on Pantsir-S1 air defence systems in Belgorod Oblast with unspecified weapons.
• Russia imposed countersanctions against 81 European Union (EU)-based news outlets on 25 June following EU sanctions against four Russian state-affiliated news outlets on 24 June.
• Dagestan Republic Head Sergey Melikov ordered investigations into the personal records of senior Dagestani officials following the 23 June likely Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in Dagestan, indicating that the Kremlin may be intensifying efforts to address Islamist extremist threats in the North Caucasus as it attempts to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy.
• Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with Lithuania-based Belarusian opposition leader Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya on 20 June in Vilnius amid deteriorating Armenian-Belarusian relations
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Avdiivka.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF) will begin training unspecified Russian military personnel on 1 October 2024.

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