Russia engages understaffed reserve units in combat operations – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russia's military command deployed insufficiently equipped and understaffed units from the operational reserve to support assault attacks in Ukraine's east. Source: ISW Quote: "The Russian military command may have committed under-equipped units initially intended to act as an operational reserve to combat operations, possibly due to constraints on the Russian defence industrial base (DIB) or efforts to reinforce ongoing Russian grinding assaults in Ukraine."

Details: On 13 July, Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets revealed that the Russian military leadership intended to create the 27th Motorised Rifle Division, part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army within the Central Military District, as a strategic reserve for the Central Grouping of Forces.

This group currently directs Russian offensive operations on the Avdiivka and Toretsk fronts. The division was to be deployed in response to a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive in Avdiivka or a Russian offensive towards Toretsk. Mashovets pointed out that the 27th Motorised Rifle Division's 433rd Motorised Rifle Regiment, which includes the depleted remnants of the 21st Motorised Rifle Brigade, was sent to the area northwest of Avdiivka before its combat capabilities were fully restored.

Furthermore, the Russian command prematurely deployed the 506th and 589th motorised rifle regiments to the Toretsk front, ahead of their planned schedule.

ISW has previously assessed that Russia's current force generation efforts are only producing a small number of additional troops that are not immediately used as reinforcements.

These troops can gradually form operational reserves, though the Russian defense industrial base is unlikely to fully support the necessary reserve manpower.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 14 July:

• Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a 13 July Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast.
• The Russian military command may have committed under-equipped units initially intended to act as an operational reserve to combat operations, possibly due to constraints on the Russian defence industrial base (DIB) or efforts to reinforce ongoing Russian grinding assaults in Ukraine.
• Ukraine signed a series of security agreements and received several aid packages amid and following the 9-11 July NATO summit.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.
• Russian State Duma Defence Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov reiterated on 14 July that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is not planning to demobilise servicemembers that Russia mobilised in the autumn of 2022 before the end of the war.

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