Russians push on entire front to prevent Ukraine from seizing initiative – ISW

Analysing the change in the mission of the central grouping of Russian troops in Donetsk Oblast, experts from the Institute for the Study of War have indicated that the Russians are attempting to exert pressure across the entire front line to prevent Ukraine from seizing the initiative on the battlefield. Source: ISW Quote: "The Russian military command is currently attempting to maintain consistent offensive pressure throughout the front to prevent Ukraine from contesting the battlefield initiative, and tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with grinding offensive operations along a longer front is more in line with this effort than tasking the grouping with achieving tactically significant gains through relatively rapid manoeuvre."

"The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces' area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritised the grouping's previous task to act solely as an operational manoeuvre force in the Avdiivka direction."

Details: The Russian military command might assign the Central Grouping of Forces to lead the main offensive in Donetsk Oblast. This suggests that they believe rapid tactical gains near the city of Avdiivka are unlikely. It's unclear if this assessment is based on declining Ukrainian resources or the Central Grouping's inability to achieve its goals.

An AOR extending from the southwest of the city of Donetsk to Toretsk will divert Russian manpower and resources from making significant advances northwest and west of Avdiivka.

The Central Grouping likely lacks the reserves needed to intensify operations in Avdiivka while maintaining pressure on the Toretsk and Donetsk fronts.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 26 July:

• The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces' area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritised the grouping's previous task to act solely as an operational manoeuvre force in the Avdiivka direction.

  The Russian military command may instead be tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with overseeing the bulk of Russia's main offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.

• The expansion of the Central Grouping of Forces' AOR indicates that the Russian military command may assess that rapid tactical gains in the Avdiivka area are unlikely.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted an ATACMS strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of 25-26 July.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Army General Dmitry Bulgakov on corruption charges on 26 July - the latest in a concerted Kremlin effort to remove senior Russian defence officials since April 2024.
• The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues intensifying efforts to control Russians' internet activities and to create a culture of self-censorship within Russia.
• Russian security forces reportedly detained several unknown actors threatening to blow up an apartment building in the Republic of Dagestan on 25 July.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

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