Ukrainian forces have technological innovation that will ease pressure on air defence – ISW

Ukrainian drone operators have been using FPV drones to target Russian reconnaissance UAVs. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Quote: "Ukrainian drone operators appear to be improving their capabilities to interdict longer-range Russian drones in mid-air, and these technological innovations may allow Ukrainian forces to ease pressures on short-range and medium-range air defence assets if successfully fielded at scale."

Details: On 1 June, posted footage showed Ukrainian forces using first-person view (FPV) drones to target and strike Russian Zala and Orlan-10 reconnaissance drones in mid-flight near the town of Velyka Novosilka. 

Later, on 29 June, Kharkiv operational and tactical group published footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone intercepting a Russian Lancet loitering munition in mid-flight on the Kharkiv front. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are likely improving their tactical use of FPV drones to intercept other drones. 

However, ISW has not observed Russian forces using FPV drones to hit Ukrainian loitering munitions or longer-range reconnaissance drones in mid-flight. A robust Ukrainian capability to use affordable, widely-available drones to disrupt more expensive Russian reconnaissance drones could allow Ukraine to conserve its costly and scarce short- and medium-range air defence interceptors for more significant Russian targets. 

Although ISW has yet to see Ukrainian forces using FPV drones against conventional Russian reconnaissance drones at scale, both sides are locked in a technological race. 

Ukraine's ability to deploy technological innovations at scale faster than Russia can adapt is crucial to counteracting Russia's current material advantages.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 7 July:  

• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian ammunition depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast on the night of 6 to 7 July.
• Satellite imagery confirms that the Ukrainian Air Force conducted a successful strike against a reported Russian regimental command post in Belgorod Oblast in late June 2024, likely with Western-provided weapons - further demonstrating how Ukraine could disrupt Russian offensive operations should the West continue to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.
• Ukrainian drone operators appear to be improving their capabilities to interdict longer-range Russian drones in mid-air, and these technological innovations may allow Ukrainian forces to ease pressures on short-range and medium-range air defence assets if successfully fielded at scale.
• Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz forces likely coerced a Russian milblogger to issue a public apology after he criticised "Akhmat" forces - an illustrative example of unprofessionalism in the Russian military.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City.
• Open-source researchers analysed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has removed roughly 42 percent of Russian tanks from pre-war open-air storage since the start of the full-scale invasion.

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