Why French election called a disaster and what it means for Ukraine

The first round of France's early parliamentary elections on 30 June saw a decisive lead for Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party. Crucially, 39 of the party's candidates won in the first round. In most constituencies where a second round is set to be held, the National Rally candidates are leading.

It is highly likely that the far-right will win an absolute majority, potentially taking control of the French government. Read more about what this scenario means for Ukraine and whether it can be avoided in the article by Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda editor - Macron's mistake, "Putin's Friends's" victory: Can France avoid far-right rule. Advertisement:

The voter turnout was a record-breaking 66.7%, the highest since 1997. President Macron hoped that high turnout would bring out voters fearful of both the far-right and the far-left, leading them to vote for his party. However, high turnout instead benefited both the far-right National Rally and the leftist bloc New Popular Front.

Over 34% voted for the far-right. This puts them on track to win between 240 and 270 seats in the second round, close to the 289 needed for a majority, far surpassing their current 88 seats. The New Popular Front, comprising socialists, greens, communists and La France Insoumise, could win between 120 and 200 seats.

In contrast, Macron's party, Renaissance, and its allies might only secure 65-90 seats, down from their previous majority of 250. Who will be France's next Prime Minister? It's clear that the president's party's low result prevents it from becoming the center of any coalition, even if the left and centrists can form a majority.

It's uncertain if the left can form a coalition center, depending on which party within the left has the most seats - La France Insoumise or the socialists. If La France Insoumise, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, dominates, a left-centrist coalition with Macron's party will be nearly impossible. A technical government or even another snap election might be the solution, with snap elections not possible for another year.

Macron's camp is reportedly considering this scenario. A technical government would have several advantages for President Macron and, by extension, for Ukraine. The opposite scenario - a government formed by the far-right - could likely lead to reduced military support for Ukraine.

Jordan Bardella, the National Rally's candidate for Prime Minister, opposes providing Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of striking Russia. Promises from Macron to send military advisers and potentially transfer Mirage 2000 jets to Ukraine would likely be off the table. However, military support for Ukraine might not completely stop, as the majority of French people, including National Rally voters, support it.

Within a week, it will become clear whether France is entering a deep political crisis or still has a chance to avoid it.

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