UK Defence Intelligence assesses Russian law obliging new citizens to register for military service

UK Defence Intelligence suggests that the new Russian law threatening to deprive new Russian citizens of their citizenship for evading military registration will not have a large-scale impact on mobilisation.  Source: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 5 August on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda  Details: It refers to a law passed by the Russian State Duma on 31 July to deprive acquired Russian citizenship for evading military registration. 

UK Intelligence suggests that the practical implications of this law for mobilisation in Russia once it comes into force will not be significant, although independent Russian media continue to report that the security forces continue to put pressure on immigrants to obtain new recruits, and the amendments to the legislation provide another tool of influence in this regard. 

"This law should also be seen in the context of increasing anti-migrant sentiment being stoked by some members of the Russian government, particularly against those of Central Asian origin/extraction.

This sentiment and rhetoric has notably increased since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 probably as part of an attempt to establish additional sources of government legitimacy in the face of high casualties and reductions in living standards," the review notes. 

Background:

• In a previous review, it was said that the average daily losses of the Russians (both killed and wounded) have decreased over the past two months from the highest level in the entire period of the full-scale invasion, from more than 1,262 people per day in May to 1,140 people in July 2024. 
• At the end of July, UK intelligence predicted that Russia would continue its tactical advance in the coming weeks despite the limited overall operational capability.

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