“We have to be prepared for a Russian attack on NATO. Estonia has the highest risk”

Hanno Pevkur has been Estonia's Minister of Defence since the summer of 2022. Throughout his time in office, he has repeatedly affirmed his country's strong support for Ukraine. Under Pevkur's leadership, the Ministry of Defence agreed to send all of its 155-mm howitzers to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as they are currently needed more in Ukraine.

And this despite the fact that Estonia believes the risk of an open war between Russia and NATO is fairly high. However, he is confident that it is possible to win the war against Russia. After all, Estonia has done that in the past.

European Pravda spoke with the minister during the GLOBSEC international conference in Prague. Advertisement:

"In Kursk, Ukraine is winning good cards for negotiations"

Hanno, let me start with a question about the Kursk operation, which you are definitely following.

What do you think? Is it worth it? When we talk about the Kursk operation, then of course, General Syrskyi and President Zelenskyy are the ones who have the best overview of why it was done and what the objectives are.

As I see it, Ukraine has shown that they can fight. Ukraine has shown that if necessary, they have the manpower and the equipment to take back their own land, but not only their own land, and also to show Russia that they are not so mighty as it might be, or as many people think. Of course we have to see how it proceeds, how it goes.

But for sure it gives a lot of new opportunities for the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian government. For instance? When we talk about possible negotiations - and we will see negotiations at one point, this is clear, we just don't know when yet - and during negotiations, everyone has to have good cards.

To have good cards, you have to earn them.

That is exactly what Ukraine is doing at the moment. One part of the military objective is keeping Russia where it is on Ukrainian soil. The other part is that Ukraine has taken part of Russia to have better positions - both for their own defensive lines in Ukraine, because Russia has to move some of the forces to the Kursk direction, and to have a better position for the negotiations.

So it's kind of a trump card for Ukraine. Well, it sounds different when you say a trump card, but the point is, yes, that the Ukrainian military has conducted this operation very carefully and very well. Following this operation, all the red lines drawn by our Western partners should vanish, because there is no redder line than Ukraine taking over Russian territory with western equipment.

But this line still exists. Why? Actually, I do not want to talk at all about red lines.

We've seen throughout the war that even if somebody is saying that there is one red line or the other red line, actually, in your head, there are some kinds of red lines for different people in different ways, but in reality, we see that it's just a matter of tactics and strategic approach - how you fight this war and how you take back the land or how you defend your country and your people. We need to talk not about red lines, but about restrictions.

And Estonia has been very clear: we do not support any restrictions. When we give weapons or weapon systems or ammunition to Ukraine, we say that you cannot fight with one hand behind your back.

Is Estonian equipment being used in Kursk Oblast? We have not put any limitations. We also do not control where our equipment is.

We know that our equipment is widely used, our weapons are widely used, and also the ammunition we have sent many, many times is used. For instance, at the moment, I do not have the precise location of our FH-70 howitzers. It's not important!

When we give them to Ukraine, then Ukraine has the freedom to use them how they see it necessary.

"Some limitations have given Ukraine an extra opportunity"

Estonia has not sent Ukraine any long-range weaponry, because not many countries have that. But do you see any sign that those who have sent it are about to lift the restrictions? Many countries say that there should be no limitations.

Some countries still have some kind of burdens or some kind of limitations. They say they do not want to escalate. I don't see any need to talk about escalation either - not only about red lines, but also escalation.

Russia has been the one who is escalating all the time. But we also see that these limitations have given Ukraine an extra opportunity. They have created for the Ukrainian army, for the Ukrainian defence industry, a chance to ramp up production and to boost innovation.

And now we see successful attacks on oil refineries very far away. You talk to your counterparts, the defence ministers of other NATO allies. What are they afraid of?

What kind of escalation could happen? At that level, nobody says what the discussions in the governments are. They just come out with the message.

The message in some cases, when we take some countries, is very clear: at the moment, they are not permitting Ukraine to use these weapons or this kind of ammunition.

"There is no difference between Russia and Belarus"

Let me ask about another red line - for Putin. Is he ready to attack a NATO ally one day? We cannot rule that out.

We have to be ready for that because we have seen it. We have seen a drone crossing the border of Romania. We have seen a rocket in Poland.

It was not an attack on NATO - it was still aimed at Ukraine. But we have to be ready. I'm not looking so much at what Putin can do or might do.

He is a threat.

Russia is a threat, not only to Estonia, but also to the collective West. When there is a threat, we have to address this threat. You have to realise that the only message the Russians understand is power.

This is why we are ramping up our own production. This is why we have increased our defence spending to more than 3% [of GDP]. This is why we are acquiring a lot of ammunition, etc.

This is why we have the new regional plans for NATO countries. This is how we respond to the threat that Russia poses at the moment for the West. Estonia with Narva [where most of the population are ethnic Russians] is probably a perfect target for Putin.

All the eastern flank is a target. Of course, those countries who have a direct border with Russia have the highest risk - Finland, Estonia, Latvia. Lithuania has Kaliningrad, but also Belarus.

We know that there is no difference between Russia and Belarus. So it also includes Poland. These countries have the highest risk.

Other countries also do, but you need to pass something. OK, Romania has the Black Sea. But still, the early warning time is a bit different when we talk about Baltic countries, Poland and Finland, and we talk about other Eastern flanks.

Are you prepared for a possible Russian attack? We are always ready. We have been ready the whole time.

Even when I go back more than 100 years to the Estonian war of independence [the war between Estonia and Bolshevik Russia in 1918-1920]. When the Estonian war of independence started, we had only 2,000 men in our army and not even all of them had a rifle. But we won that war against Russia.

That shows that even a small country can win against Russia when it fights for its freedom, for its independence and territorial integrity. This is what we did more than 100 years ago. The situation is not comparable - what it was then and what it is now.

So of course Estonia is ready. This is also why we joined NATO 20 years ago. Do you think other NATO allies understand that Russia really could attack any of the allies one day?

When I take the political leadership and the circles where I go - NATO summits, defence ministries - then yes, everybody understands that Russia is the only threat to NATO countries and to the Alliance. That is why we've approved new regional plans in Vilnius. We changed the total concept of defence more than two years ago in Madrid.

These are steps we have taken since the war started in Ukraine because we see that even against a big country like Ukraine, Russia did not hesitate to launch an attack.

"The Ukrainian government is focusing on how to get its men to return voluntarily"

Do you believe in Ukraine's victory? Of course. How do you see it?

And let's avoid saying something like "It's up to Ukrainians to define it", because Ukrainians have already done that... Of course, we know what Ukraine wants. It wants all its territory back.

Is that realistic? It has to be the goal. Because otherwise there is no point discussing victory.

It is important that the collective West knows that there is a possibility, there is a way that the Ukrainian army can liberate the whole country, and the Ukrainian army can fight for the country and for the people. If Ukrainians decide something else, it's their choice. But for us, for Estonia, for Latvia, Lithuania and the other allies, there is only one goal - to get back all the territory of Ukraine.

But when you refer to negotiations, what does it mean? Every war ends with negotiations. We've seen that in history, and there has to be internationally recognised peace.

The question is when it happens and when Ukraine is ready for that. I have to stress: no one from the West can say, "Now you have to sit down at the table." This is not our right to say. Maybe Orb?n can...

Even when he does, it's not his right to say that. You have the right. It's only you who has the right to say when you are ready to negotiate.

Might NATO membership be part of the negotiations with Russia? It might be. Why not?

Considering the starting point of the negotiations, the outcome might differ. Our position has always been very clear and we will not change it - you have to take back all the territories, and you have a rightful place in the NATO and EU family. I have to ask about Ukrainian men of conscription age in Estonia.

There is a lot of discussion about this in Ukraine. Can you see how Estonia could help Ukraine to encourage these men to return, or even help get them back so they can be conscripted? We are cooperating with the Ukrainian government here, definitely.

When the Ukrainian government asks for our help, then we need to see what international law says and how we can proceed. We are cooperating as much as we can with the Ukrainian government. But as I understand today, the focus for the Ukrainian government is to offer these people the opportunity to return voluntarily.

We all understand that this is a very difficult task, but let's see how things develop and how the Ukrainian government will decide the question of mobilisation.

Sergiy Sydorenko Prague-Kyiv Video by Volodymyr Oliinyk

European Pravda

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