How a pro-Russian candidate in Romania became the election Frontrunner and whether the country will turn Eastward

On 25 November, Romania's first round of its presidential elections delivered a troubling surprise. The expected scenario, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu as the frontrunner and George Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), as his most convenient opponent, was shattered. Instead, the first-round results have added intensity to the race.

The second round will pit two ideologically and worldview-opposed candidates: one with pro-Eastern leanings and the other staunchly pro-Western. Romanians must now decide the future direction of their country. Advertisement:

Read more in an article by Serhii Herasymchuk and Rostyslav Klimov, the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council experts - Stopping the pro-Russian pivot: can Romania defend its European path? The first round delivered for real shocking results. The biggest surprise was the first-place finish of far-right independent candidate Calin Georgescu, a figure often overlooked in polls and post-election predictions.

Another unexpected development was the advancement of pro-Western Elena Lasconi, leader of the Save Romania Union (USR), to the second round. While she was considered a contender, few believed in her chances of success. Equally noteworthy is that, for the first time in years, the second round will feature no candidates from the PNL or PSD parties.

After a decade under the national-liberal president Klaus Iohannis, Romania now stands on the brink of significant political transformations, the nature of which will only become clear after the parliamentary elections on 1 December and the second presidential round two weeks later. While the main players targeted each other and independent candidates with smear campaigns, Calin Georgescu emerged as the leader. Many Romanian voters cast their ballots out of a desire for radical, clear and decisive change. This protest sentiment and anger at the system became Georgescu's trump card.

Only after the election did Romanian and international media begin to highlight Georgescu's far-nationalist and religious rhetoric, his outspoken anti-Western stance, his glorification of dictator Ion Antonescu, ties to controversial Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin, criticism of the EU and NATO, and friendly relations with Moscow. All of it sparked wide resonance and shock. Georgescu garnered 31% of votes from 18-24-year-olds, but only 13% of voters with university degree supported him.

His appeal to young voters was partly driven by a proactive campaign on TikTok, where he promoted messages of being a "true Romanian" and a "strong leader." Elena Lasconi's success, by contrast, was more predictable. She ran an active campaign, performed well in debates, and secured the endorsement of former Prime Minister Ludovic Orban - key factors that helped her reach the second round.

The second round of Romania's presidential election is poised to be highly tense and historic. Despite the rise of populism in Romania's political landscape, it is highly likely that the majority of voters will support the pro-European candidate. The coming weeks will test the moderation and pragmatism of Romanian voters, as well as the ability of pro-European forces to mobilise and find common ground to counter the advance of the far right.

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