Kremlin increases pressure on Europe regarding war in Ukraine amid uncertainty in US – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Russian authorities are increasing pressure on European countries over the issue of Russia's war against Ukraine amid uncertainty in US policy. Source: ISW Quote from the ISW: "The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making in Russia's favour ahead of or in lieu of possible future negotiations about the resolution of the war in Ukraine."

Details: Russian ruler Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 15 November and repeated several Kremlin narratives aimed at influencing the German government and other Western powers to push Ukraine into premature peace talks instead of providing further military support to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the Scholz-Putin call a "Pandora's box" and warned that it would help Putin achieve his main goals of reducing his isolation in the international community and holding talks on Russia's preferred terms, which will lead to nothing. Putin and other senior Russian officials have recently stepped up their rhetoric in an attempt to influence the foreign policy of the new US administration led by President-elect Donald Trump.

Quote from the ISW: "The Kremlin has also recently reiterated its unwillingness to compromise on the terms of any possible future negotiations while strongly indicating that the Kremlin's longstanding goal of complete Ukrainian capitulation remains unchanged. The Kremlin likely aims to take advantage of uncertainty about the future US policy regarding Ukraine by intensifying its reflexive control campaign against Ukraine's European allies."

More details: Notably, senior Russian officials, including Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, have used phone calls with Western political and military officials to advance the Kremlin's narrative and try to force the West into making premature concessions on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity after 2022.

Nevertheless, Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine through various means and platforms.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 15 November:

• The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making in Russia's favour ahead of or in lieu of possible future negotiations about the resolution of the war in Ukraine.
• Abkhazian oppositionists protested an agreement between the de facto government of Georgia's Abkhazia region with Russia aimed at enhancing Russian investors' rights in Abkhazia on 15 November.
• Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with military support via various means and platforms.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to expand its "Time of Heroes" program to create a new social class comprised of veterans loyal to Russian ruler Vladimir Putin's regime and ideology.

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