Will the West recognise Georgia's election and what the opposition hopes for
On 26 October, Georgian citizens voted for a new parliament. The Central Election Commission announced a victory for the ruling party, Georgian Dream, which has raised many questions both domestically and internationally. Both the pro-European opposition and President Salome Zourabichvili claim the elections were rigged. On 28 October, a massive rally was held in Tbilisi to protest the alleged falsifications and demand the cancellation of the election results.
But street protests have since subsided, with only a small rally on 29 October, and no street actions next day. Read more about whether this signals a final victory for Georgian Dream in the article by Yurii Panchenko, the European Pravda editor - Revolution "on halt": what's happening in Georgia and whether the protests have a chance to succeed. Advertisement:
On Wednesday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the situation in Georgia, saying, "We must admit that, as of today, Russia has won in Georgia." This is one of the strongest statements regarding the events in Georgia, which can be interpreted as either a long-standing shift by the Georgian government towards Moscow or as a defeat for the opposition in the recent elections. Yet it may be premature to draw final conclusions.
Most Western countries currently prefer to remain silent. A telling sign: despite the announced victory, Georgian Dream has received very few congratulations - gestures that would signal international recognition of the results. But this Western silence is not what the Georgian opposition hoped for.
Only two countries, Canada and Sweden, have so far taken concrete steps. It must be acknowledged that the Georgian elections took place at a challenging time for the West, with most leaders opting to stay silent. This particularly pertains to the US elections.
The Georgian government has openly aligned itself with Viktor Orban in supporting a potential victory for Donald Trump, who likely would not emphasise these countries' democratic shortcomings. Therefore, Washington's attention remains focused on internal matters, precluding a prompt response to events in the South Caucasus. The EU is also in a period of transition, appointing new European Commissioners.
While the West is on a forced pause, preparations for legal battles are underway in Georgia. The opposition and NGOs are completing documents to contest the election results in court. They have little faith in the independence and impartiality of the Georgian judicial system, but a clear articulation of the scale and methods of election fraud could prove useful for applying pressure on the West.
Meanwhile, the Georgian government is attempting to seize the initiative. Following a statement from the Central Election Commission, the Georgian Prosecutor's Office has announced an investigation into potential election fraud. It is likely that the investigation will overlook violations, instead culminating in accusations of slander against the opposition.
Indicatively, Georgian Dream has already promised repercussions for even the polling companies whose exit polls indicated an opposition victory. For all these reasons, it is clear that, without mass protests, other resistance efforts against electoral fraud will be fruitless. However, the only large protest in Georgia took place on 28 October, with subsequent protests tapering off.
If mass protests do not resume over the upcoming weekend, Western attention to Georgia is likely to wane.
The "window of opportunity" for a pro-European Georgia remains open - for now.
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