Baku-Grozny Flight Crashes Over Russia: Evidence Points to Possible Air Defense Hit

25 December, 2024 Damage to the aircraft fuselage after the crash. Photo: Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Kazakhstan The passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan was damaged in Russian airspace.

This is evidenced by videos taken during the flight. An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190, flying from Baku to Grozny, declared an emergency at around 11:20 a.m. local time. Preliminary reports suggest that the emergency was caused by a bird strike, which resulted in damage to the aircraft's control system.

Initially, the plane was diverted to the airport in Makhachkala, but later it was sent across the Caspian Sea to Aktau, in Kazakhstan. The rerouting was due to heavy fog over the Chechen capital, Grozny, as confirmed by the airport's press service to RBC. It should be noted that the emergency situation on board the plane was confirmed over the Caspian Sea, as evidenced by the passengers' videos. The published videos show the flight over the sea, as well as damage to the plane, an injured woman with bloodstains on her clothes and the floor, and the presence of oxygen masks above the passenger seats.

Flightradar24 also recorded significant fluctuations in speed and altitude, which may indicate that the pilots were trying to balance the plane to continue the flight to the nearest airport.

In addition, according to the official Flightradar24 channel on X, it was impossible to record the entire flight because the GPS receiver was unable to receive a signal when approaching the Chechen Republic, probably due to the operation of electronic warfare systems in the region.

Communication was restored only during the approach to Aktau, where an unstable flight was already noticed.

Flight route from the FlightRadar24 service. Photo: Flightradar24

After the crash and the subsequent search for survivors, detailed photos and videos were shared, showing parts of the plane and damage that strangely resembled the impact of anti-aircraft missiles. Comparing the photos of the damaged IL-22PP electronic warfare aircraft, damaged by an anti-aircraft missile in January 2024, and the passenger ERJ-190, one can see the similarity of damage and the number of holes in the hull, which probably indicates damage by a high-explosive fragment.

Comparison of an IL-22PP damaged by an anti-aircraft missile and a passenger ERJ-190. Photo: Fighterbomber/Astra

So far, it is officially known that 38 passengers died as a result of the plane crash.

29 people, including two children, were injured and hospitalized; about 11 of them are in stable serious condition, the rest are in moderate condition.

An official investigation has now been launched with the participation of Azerbaijani and Kazakh authorities, who will examine the wreckage and come to a conclusion as to what caused the plane to fly erratically and what exactly caused the damage to the left side of the plane's tail.