How and why Russia invests in fueling hatred between Poland and Ukraine

Attempts to incite conflicts between Ukraine and Poland, as well as between Ukrainian and Polish societies, have long been not only a central element of Russia's information policy and propaganda but also a diplomatic objective. Now, they are increasingly becoming an explicit goal of its military strategy. Let's elaborate further on their tactics and objectives.

Shared history

One of the first things Russian propagandists bring up when discussing Polish-Ukrainian relations is historical issues and the differences in their interpretations.

Often, the focus is on the most publicly and politically charged topic today - the Volhynia tragedy of the 1940s. Notably, some Ukrainian and Polish figures inadvertently play into this narrative by calling for rigidity in finding compromise formulations and answers to the mutual questions between Ukraine and Poland. As a result, the issue of human losses during World War II is shifted into the political arena of the present.

This method of creating divides and escalating conflicts is a familiar territory for Russian propaganda and various special operations aimed at stoking tensions over disputes that seemingly belong to the past.

But this is only one example. On the European continent, no neighboring peoples lack complex historical issues - often bloody ones - that have influenced the shapes of borders, cultural traditions, and the formation of modern nations. Ukraine and Poland are no exception.

Their statehood developed over centuries in close proximity and were often caught in the crosswinds of imperial, regime, and bloc confrontations. However, from the Kremlin's perspective, all historical complexities can be exploited for its own interests. Interestingly, this is done without drawing parallels to Russia's relationships with neighboring peoples - those who fell under imperial rule or those fortunate enough to escape it.

Russian media present a paradoxical narrative, portraying the alleged Polish-Ukrainian hatred as an internal conflict within the "Russophobe" camp

In Russia, at the level of historical and ideological doctrines and geopolitical discussions, Poland is explicitly labeled as an enemy of Moscow.

The roots of this hostility, according to Russia, date back to the conflicts between Muscovy and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania - a period that shaped Russia's anti-Western course. However, in the broader context of Russia's worldview regarding Polish-Ukrainian and Russian-Polish relations, another historical factor is the Polish uprisings against the rule of the Russian Empire, which occurred from the late 18th to the second half of the 19th century. Russians have developed a perception of Poles as traitors to the idea of uniting Slavic lands and peoples under the Russian crown.

The Poles' refusal to remain under Moscow's rule in the 20th century only reinforced this view. Consequently, the Ukrainian-Polish partnership appears threatening and existentially unacceptable to the Russian imperial mindset. Moreover, it is common for Russian publicists to attribute Ukrainians' rejection of Russian dominance to historical Polish influence.

So, it is evident that Russian information operations will aim to incite conflicts between Ukraine and Poland based on historical grounds, while Russian platforms will actively disseminate careless and erroneous statements made by politicians from both countries.

Assistance

In Ukrainian society, there is a perception of insufficient quantity and speed in the delivery of military aid from partner countries. Unfortunately, this sentiment also extends to the topic of Polish assistance to Ukraine. Adding fuel to this discussion is Russian propaganda, which never misses an opportunity to exacerbate tensions and create mutual grievances.

Even many of those initiating these conversations recognize that such criticisms of Poland are not entirely appropriate. On the one hand, Warsaw has supported Ukraine with weapons and ammunition to the best of its ability - not to mention its assistance to civilians. In June 2022, Polish journalist Slawomir Sierakowski announced a fundraising campaign to support the Ukrainian military.

Within a month, over 22.5 million zloty was raised on a crowdfunding platform. The funds were initially intended to purchase a Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drone. However, Baykar, the company that manufactures these drones, decided to donate the system to Ukraine's Defense Forces free of charge, redirecting the collected funds to charitable causes instead.

As a result, the Ukrainian charity foundation Come Back Alive received 5.13 million zloty and £600,000 from the organizers of the Bayraktar fundraiser in Poland. With 5.13 million zloty (approximately 1.2 million USD), the Foundation purchased a mobile modular camp from a Polish company for the 150th Training Center under the Command of the Territorial Defense Forces. EUR740,000 was used to acquire two maintenance workshops for the Marine Corps Command of the Ukrainian Navy and the Command of the Air Assault Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

This is just one of dozens, if not hundreds, of examples of how Poland and Polish society support Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty and freedom. However, challenges arise, such as the discussions about transferring MiG-29 aircraft from Poland to Ukraine or the inability to enforce a no-fly zone over western Ukraine with Polish air defense systems. Similarly, there was confusion surrounding the statement by the Polish Prime Minister in the fall of 2023 about halting arms transfers to Ukraine.

Added to this is the ongoing issue of transporting Ukrainian agricultural products and the debates surrounding it.

Russia's information campaign in this area once again focuses on emphasizing the historical conflicts between Ukrainians and Poles. Russian media actively promoted this narrative, particularly during the grain transport blockades from Ukraine to Poland in 2023. On matters of politics, business, and resource exports, Russian efforts aim to frame the discussion solely within the context of bilateral Polish-Ukrainian relations.

The Kremlin's main efforts to sow discord between Ukraine and Poland are focused precisely on this. It seeks to frame any misalignments arising from financial interests, political ambitions, or security plans solely as a historical Ukrainian-Polish conflict and mutual animosity.

The Russian Narrative of Ukraine's "Partition"

Another assertion that Russia has been using since the 1990s is the belief that, under favorable circumstances, Poland could become a situational ally of Russia in the "partition" of Ukraine. In such a scenario, territories of Ukraine that belonged to Poland before 1939 would supposedly be transferred to Poland - with Moscow's permission, of course.

It seems that those in Russia responsible for stoking conflicts between Poland and Ukraine have been emphasizing such "prospects" for so long and so often that they themselves have come to deeply believe in them.

It is worth noting that this narrative, aimed at instilling fear and demoralizing Ukrainian society, appears quite unconventional even for Russia itself. A paradox arises: Russia's war against Ukraine, ostensibly fought to push NATO's borders farther from Russia's own, would, under the described scenario, result in a sharp and significant movement of those borders much closer, as Poland is a NATO member. According to Russian logic, such proximity to an aggressive Russia from Poland's side also appears highly irresponsible.

Poland and Russia share a 198-kilometer border, which already poses significant dangers and creates challenges. If the hypothetical "partition" of Ukraine were to occur, the length of this shared border would increase three to four times. It must be understood that the narrative about the "partition" of Ukraine among other countries serves as a mantra of self-reassurance for Russians.

It has become evident that Ukraine has proven too large for Russian forces to establish control over it. In this context, the hypothetical advance of Russian troops to Lviv seems unnecessary and less threatening in the Russian mindset.

Continuation of Russian Aggression

It is already evident that Russian aggression could potentially extend to the Baltic States and Poland via the so-called Suwalki Gap. These intentions are not even concealed in Russia itself.

Poland is actively preparing for this scenario by expanding its armed forces and increasing its stockpile of weapons. This is likely the reasoning behind the public announcement to halt arms supplies to Ukraine. If it is evident that Russia's information operations abroad serve as preparation for or accompaniment to active operations, including direct armed aggression, it remains crucial for Russia to continue introducing elements of conflict and tension into Ukrainian-Polish relations.

Anything involving Ukrainians and Poles that can be framed in a negative context - ranging from everyday disputes to outright shortsighted statements by the leadership of both countries - will be exploited for this purpose. The goal is simple: to weaken interaction, communication, and the understanding of shared plans and actions between the countries and nations as much as possible. A common language, in the broadest sense, is needed now more than ever.

Every moment of discord works against it.

Under the current circumstances, this is harmful and extremely dangerous.