Russia postpones seizure of major cities to advance through open territories – ISW

Russia's military commanders may have likely been given new tasks by Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, focusing their efforts on securing territorial gains rather than seizing major cities. Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Details: Analysts of the ISW note in their report that Putin, during his annual Direct Line press conference on 19 December, highlighted the achievements of Russian troops, which he said were advancing "square kilometres" along the line of contact.

This approach contrasts with the previous emphasis on the capture of important settlements.

Analysts say Putin may have instructed military commanders to postpone the capture of the strategic city of Pokrovsk, focusing instead on advancing through open fields and small towns. Russian troops are now 10 kilometres from the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. The capture of the whole of Donetsk Oblast remains one of the Kremlin's key goals.

This advance is likely to be used as an element of propaganda to demonstrate the success of the Russian army both domestically and internationally.

Analysts add that an organised operation against well-fortified cities could slow down the pace of the advance, which is critical to the Kremlin's attempts to demonstrate Russian superiority on the world stage.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 23 December:

• Russian forces are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but it remains unclear whether they will be able to exploit these gains to encircle the town or if their aim is to reach the administrative boundary of Donetsk Oblast.
• It remains uncertain which objective the Russian military command will prioritise, as Russian leader Vladimir Putin may have tasked the military with securing territorial gains rather than capturing major settlements.
• The Russian military command appears to have divided responsibility for the Pokrovsk front between the Central Military District's 2nd and 41st combined arms armies (CAAs), and ISW has yet to observe significant Russian activity in the 41st CAA's area of responsibility (AoR).
• Decreased combat effectiveness among Russian forces may be slowing their rate of advance on the Pokrovsk front.
• Increased losses of Russian armoured vehicles over the past year, particularly among units and formations engaged in frontline combat for most of 2024, may be impacting Russia's rate of advance in specific sectors of the frontline.
• North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy additional troops and weapons to Russia, amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin used his meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to further Russia's campaign to undermine Western unity in its support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false flag operation in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, likely in a continued effort to destabilise Moldova and hinder its integration into the European Union (EU).
• Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. (NOTE: A version of this text also appears in ISW-CTP's 23 December Iran Update.)
• Russian forces have recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin's Time of Heroes programme, which aims to appoint Russian veterans to government positions, is already causing conflicts between veterans and corrupt regional officials.

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