Why the EU is in no hurry to find a new trade format with Ukraine and what consequences this may bear
In a couple of weeks, the conditions for Ukrainian exports to the EU may change dramatically. On 5 June, the "trade visa-free regime" - a set of autonomous trade measures introduced by the European Commission for one year and then extended twice - will expire. As early as last year, Brussels warned that this extension would be the last.
Since then, this message has only been reaffirmed. At the same time, the EU promised Ukraine to find a new format of trade relations that would satisfy, if not all, then at least the main demands of Kyiv. However, months passed, and the European Commission was in no hurry to announce any proposals.
Read more about what lies behind the EU's silence, what kind of compromise might be reached and what concessions Kyiv might make in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor - A new era of trade with the EU: what will replace the 'autonomous preferences'. The last meeting of the Association Council on 9-10 April, only partially met Ukraine's expectations. No decision was announced in Brussels.
"The main problem is Poland," said one of Ukraine's negotiators. "It was Poland that was the key opponent of extending the autonomous preferences. And now they are against any decision until the end of the election campaign, saying it could influence the election results." The frontrunner in Poland's presidential race is the current mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, a candidate from the Prime Minister's party.
He also enjoys the support of the President of the European Commission. Given that Trzaskowski's lead in the second round is rather slim, any decision on Ukrainian exports could lead to his defeat. That's because his two main rivals are actively using anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, particularly the need to protect Polish farmers from Ukrainian agricultural imports.
Since the second round of the presidential election, which are set to be held on 1 June, Ukraine and the EU will have only a few days for official negotiations. It is entirely possible that the decision will be made in the final hours before the deadline. If the EU does not make a decision, then after 5 June, the situation will "by default" return to the regime that existed before 2022 - to the comprehensive free trade area outlined in the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
This is a highly undesirable scenario for Kyiv. However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised that the trade terms between Ukraine and the EU after 5 June will definitely be better than those that existed before 2022. Achieving this is possible through a revision of the current free trade regime - an option foreseen in Article 29 of the Association Agreement.
But many EU countries are reluctant to revise the parameters of the free trade regime with Ukraine. This regime is governed by the Association Agreement, which is a bilateral document where both parties have equal rights. Therefore, any restrictions cannot be introduced unilaterally without proof of harm caused to producers.
What could reassure EU countries is the preservation of the emergency suspension mechanism. This mechanism, it should be recalled, is triggered when Ukrainian exports exceed a certain threshold. Statements from Ukrainian negotiators indicate that Kyiv is ready to agree to this concession.
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