Why Trump needs the mineral resources memorandum and what Ukraine gains from it

Late Thursday evening, Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signed the first document within the framework of negotiations on mineral resources - a political memorandum that not only commits both sides to completing the negotiations, but also sets out several positions that the parties have agreed on. The signing of a document in this form is surprising. It's just a one-page text, lacking any details, and there's no real reason why it should have been issued.

Read more in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor - Speedy deal, strategic gains: inside the US-Ukraine mineral agreement timeline. One concern, however, is the extremely short timeline set for concluding the full agreement. Ukraine has agreed that Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will visit Washington next week "to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and lend high-level support to the conclusion of technical discussions on the terms of an agreement establishing a reconstruction investment fund" (the name agreed on for the minerals deal).

The memorandum also expresses an expectation "to report on the progress [made on the text of the agreement] by 26 April 2025, with the aim of signing it as soon as possible". These are incredibly tight deadlines. According to European Pravda's information, the agreement is currently a long way from being ready for signing.

Finalising the negotiations within a week (especially during the Easter holidays) is technically possible, but politically unlikely - unless, of course, one party were to completely surrender its negotiating position, and Ukraine is unlikely to do that after having put up so much resistance during these talks. In simpler terms, Kyiv understands that this latest deadline will likely be missed as well. So why sign this document at all?

The short answer is: because the US administration needed it for political reasons, and it causes no harm to Ukraine. And that's absolutely true. There is nothing in the text that Svyrydenko signed that is unacceptable or even dangerous for Ukraine.

On the contrary, it contains provisions that clearly benefit Ukraine. For Ukraine, it is critically important that any agreement with the United States does not obstruct its future integration into the European Union. It is also essential that any deal with the US does not conflict with Ukraine's relationships with the IMF and other creditors. The most notable win is that for the first time, US military aid has been explicitly linked to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine gave up its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

This clause could prove useful in future negotiations, especially in defending against Trump's demands that Ukraine "pay back" the aid it has received. It's also clear that US officials need some way of explaining to their voters why, contrary to what they previously promised, Ukraine won't be paying for past aid. This narrative gap is likely what's keeping the compensation issue alive behind the scenes.

For the first time, the document puts US assistance to Ukraine and Ukraine's contribution to global security, made 30 years ago under US pressure, on the same footing by referencing the Budapest Memorandum. The memorandum states: "The United States and Ukraine recognise the contribution that Ukraine has made to strengthening international peace and security by voluntarily giving up the world's third-largest nuclear weapons arsenal." Notably, this wording appears almost immediately after a mention of the "significant financial and material support" that the US has provided to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. At the very least, this clause gives Ukraine a new advantage in the negotiations.

Want compensation for US aid? Then let's calculate the "market value" of the 1,500-2,000 nuclear warheads of strategic weapons, and the even greater number of tactical warheads (the exact numbers remain unknown), along with the 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles and dozens of strategic bombers that Ukraine relinquished under the Budapest Memorandum. Hopefully the US understands this too.

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