Why a far-right politician is one step away from leading Romania and whether he can be stopped
On 4 May, Romania held the first round of presidential elections. The leader of the far-right AUR party, George Simion, achieved a surprisingly high result - 40.96% of the vote. Simion is a politician who is persona non grata in both Ukraine and Moldova.
The second round of Romania's presidential election is set to be held on 18 May. Simion will face independent candidate and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan. Dan has the potential to unite the pro-European electorate, but the gap between the two candidates is significant.
Dan received only 20.99% in the first round. In an interview with European Pravda editor Yurii Panchenko, Serhii Herasymchuk, Deputy Executive Director of the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism, outlined what could help the pro-Western, Ukraine-friendly candidate win and what risks Ukraine must already consider. Read more in the article - Romania on the verge of a far-right victory: can the 'friend of Putin and Trump' be stopped?
The first-round results were both worse and better than expected. Worse because George Simion not only won the first round, but did so with a very strong showing. Better because there was a real risk that Nicusor Dan might not make it to the second round at all, especially since some so-called allies from the pro-European camp, along with opponents, were actively working against him.
Mathematically, the pro-Western candidates together have a majority, but it's not that simple. Some of the voters who backed Victor Ponta (13.05%) and even Crin Antonescu may now vote for Simion, since Dan, who comes from outside the political mainstream, appears anti-system, unpredictable and unacceptable to them. For parts of Romania's deep state, George Simion is seen as the more manageable option.
Someone with whom deals can be made. Someone who can preserve the current power structures. But this is a dangerous gamble, as Simion is now attracting interest from both Moscow and Washington, as well as from numerous far-right movements across Europe.
Nicusor Dan does have a chance, especially if he can mobilise the electorate. It is clear that if Simion becomes president, this will alter Romania's relationship with Brussels. Under Simion, relations with the EU would freeze.
His stance on aid to Ukraine would shift, as he has repeatedly stated that such support is exhausted and should end. While Simion insists he is not a Russophile, his policies clearly play into Russia's hands. And that's not all.
During his campaign, Simion said he wants to bring back Calin Georgescu to power - someone he considers unfairly disqualified - possibly as prime minister. To do that, however, he would need to reset the parliament. This means a clash between the president and the government could lead to snap parliamentary elections, where radical forces hope to improve their results.
Judging by Simion's performance, they clearly have the potential to do so. If Nicusor Dan becomes president, it would be a positive scenario for Ukraine, as he would join a pro-Ukrainian prime minister, forming a friendly leadership tandem. However, domestic politics would remain tense, as Dan would be a political opponent of the current coalition.
In general, Romania's elections highlight a regional trend, whose danger lies not only in the potential rise of ultra-conservative, far-right, or pro-Russian forces.
The most serious threat is the polarisation of society itself.
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