Why the EU lets Moldova overtake Ukraine on the path to membership
In 2025, Moldova may leap ahead of Ukraine on its journey to EU membership. The EU is seriously preparing to launch accession talks with Chisinau in the second half of the year, but not with Kyiv. This would have both symbolic and practical consequences, marking the end of the informal "pairing" between the two countries in the accession process.
Such a move could harm public trust in the EU within Ukraine and slow down essential reforms. Western politicians are already urging Ukraine not to overreact. For now, Ukraine's only options are to persuade Hungary or wait for a change in Hungarian leadership.
There is genuine hope that change is possible this time. Read more in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, Tetiana Vysotska and Yurii Panchenko of European Pravda - Orban sidelines Ukraine, helps Moldova. What might happen to Kyiv's EU dream with Hungary's veto.
Pairing Ukraine with Moldova has given Kyiv a powerful ally in Romania, which is doing everything it can to bring Moldova into the EU. Moldova, in turn, gains broader support, including from Poland and the Baltic states, thanks to its link with Ukraine. So, the informal linkage between the two countries has benefited both.
But now, there are signs this "package" might be coming apart. Two weeks ago, European Pravda broke the news that Brussels was preparing to separate Ukraine and Moldova on their path towards EU membership. The main obstacle is Hungary, specifically, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's veto of the start of accession talks with Ukraine.
The veto has been in place for some time, with no clear end in sight. Several other sources have confirmed that the EU is in no rush and will try to break the Hungarian veto by the end of summer. Why did the EU give in to Orban's pressure?
The reason lies in the decisive parliamentary elections in Moldova, scheduled for 28 September 2025. Maia Sandu and her ruling PAS party (Party of Action and Solidarity) have made European integration the cornerstone of their campaign. Sandu, who was previously cautious, now insists that Moldova will join the EU by 2029 if pro-European forces (i.e. her party) win the elections.
But convincing voters of this is impossible unless the government can show tangible progress on the European path. Several officials from Ukraine-friendly states told European Pravda they are preparing to ramp up pressure on Hungary, aiming to persuade Viktor Orban at the upcoming EU summit on 26-27 June. Until then, the issue remains in limbo.
Hungary is currently holding "national consultations" with the public on Ukraine's EU accession, which will last until 20 June. Orban will not make any decisions until the consultations are over. To put psychological pressure on Orban, the European Commission has launched a legal review to explore ways to suspend Hungary's voting rights.
But there is one person who may be able to change Orban's position: Donald Trump. Trump has already named Ukraine's EU accession as part of his peace plan. This means that Orban's actions are undermining Trump's plan! And if Trump directly tells the Hungarian PM to end the obstruction and lift the veto at the NATO summit in The Hague on 24-25 June, that could be pivotal.
The most optimistic scenario is that Ukraine's EU membership process is unblocked in July, when Denmark takes over the EU presidency. However, it's important to acknowledge that the blockade could persist. "The European Commission is basically ready to wait for Hungary's elections, which won't happen until next year.
That's unacceptable to us, but what can we do about it? That's the question," a senior Ukrainian government official told European Pravda. Officials within the EU are starting to prepare Ukraine for this reality.
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