UK intelligence analyses changes at front over past week

Ground combat operations in Ukraine over the past week have featured either a static front line or very gradual, localised advances by Russian forces in critical areas. Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 5 January on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda Details: The Western group of Russian forces has pursued a large-scale but unsuccessful offensive near the town of Kupiansk.

Ukraine is holding a stable front line in northern Donetsk Oblast, although small-scale Russian attacks around the war-torn city of Bakhmut have been reported.

Fierce fighting persists in the central part of Donetsk Oblast for the city of Avdiivka, with the Russian army consolidating gains on the Marinka front in late December 2023, eventually allowing them to reach the western outskirts of the city after nine years of fighting in the area. Russian airborne forces have likely made minimal progress in Ukraine's south in a new attempt to drive out the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Dnipro River's left (eastern) bank near the village of Krynky. In a recent review, UK intelligence estimated that given the current rate of Russian casualties in Ukraine, the total number of Russian losses in Ukraine will cross the 500,000 mark by 2025.

UK intelligence also outlined the role of a special "security" structure created by the Moscow authorities on instructions from the Kremlin.

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