10 outcomes, two years of the war

1. The dynamics of change and the speed of military events are occurring at a pace that no one expected or predicted. Since 24 February 2022, we have passed at least three stages: a manoeuvre war, the transition to positional confrontation and hybrid warfare, which combines the latest technologies and conventional practices of the last century. Today, we are moving to the fourth phase - the accumulation of capabilities - restructuring and concentration. 
2. The forecasting horizon is shrinking to the point of complete uncertainty.

   Only the speed and responsiveness of information processing matter. Those who analyse more data per unit of time, make decisions and have mechanisms for their implementation become more effective. Software products installed in combat realities are becoming an absolutely integral part of a warfare.

   Ukraine has created and conducted frontline tests of absolutely unique software developments that will become the backbone of wars of the future and the Ukrainian victory today. 

3. The use of various unmanned systems by the Ukrainian Defence Forces is an innovation and a revolution in military affairs. The charters of the armed forces, textbooks and strategic military planning documents of all countries of the world will be rewritten in the light of the Ukrainian experience. The Ukrainian military has pioneered the massive and systematic use of the UAV in a full-scale war.

   Our experience is unprecedented and a subject of current interest and study.

4. Ukraine's honesty and openness in dealing with its partners has earned their trust in the transfer of used to be "taboo" weapons to the Defence Forces. No russian fakes about the alleged transfer of allied weapons to Middle Eastern terrorists, drug mafias or resale on the black market could undermine this trust. All inspections conducted by our partners have confirmed that Ukraine has used Western aid for its intended purpose.

   Not a single round was misused, all of them flew in the direction of the russian camouflaged biomaterial. As a result, the allies have effectively lifted any restrictions on the range of military supplies.

5. Rumours of the "death" of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex were greatly exaggerated. Greetings to the "sweet couple", the kisiliov-soloviov, are regularly sent by Ukrainian Bohdans, Corsairs, Neptunes, SeaBaby maritime drones, FPV drones, UAR-10 sniper rifles and hundreds of other lethal weapons labelled "Made in Ukraine".

   After the first shocks of missile attacks, seizures of territory, and loss of industrial capacity and personnel, Ukrainian manufacturers have created a true miracle. In the face of russian missile range and the possibility of hitting the entire territory of the state, new technological complexes were built, often with machines installed in the open air. Nevertheless, the state order is being fulfilled! 

6. The Ukrainian military is rapidly adopting equipment used by NATO member states.

   What we could not even dream of in early 2022 has become a reality now: PARTIOTS, IRIS-T, NASAMS, HIMARS missile system, Abrams, Leopard tanks (later F-16) and dozens of other items have become synonymous for good news - weapons that are tested in real life, not on a training ground, and military personnel who gain practical experience rather than theoretical. The Ukrainian army of 2024 is much stronger and more experienced. Gradually, we are creating an army of liberation and an army of revenge - a process that nothing can stop.

7. On the international track, thanks to the efforts of the President of Ukraine, Ukrainian diplomats and many other people involved in the processes, a vector of security guarantees is systematically and consistently crystallising, which will become the backbone for future alliances and interstate associations.

   The war in Ukraine is changing Europe and the world. Europe is coming back, it is consolidating and focusing, shaking off its slackness and drowsiness. And this European awakening is not going to be liked by many, especially with a young, armed and war-hardened Ukrainian state in its midst. 

8. In Europe and in democratic countries, there have been fundamental shifts in the reassessment of russia's place and role in the modern world.

   A considerable distance has been travelled in this direction, the significance of which should not be underestimated. From hopes about the possibilities of democratic transformation of the russian federation to the acceptance of putin's version of "sovereign authoritarianism" with a mercantile expectation of high-margin cooperation. From the first fear of the annexation of Crimea to the usual position of appeasement of the aggressor and increasing purchases of russian gas and oil.

   From the shock of the outbreak of war against Ukraine to the realisation that russia is a strategic, long-term and existential threat.

9. Europe had the opportunity to see the collapse of the overblown myth of russia's military "greatness and power", but at the same time, it saw on its own that in a potential conflict with russia, it is an easy target and can feel safe only thanks to the umbrella of the United States. This conclusion, drawn by European elites in the wake of the turbulent processes in the United States, will have long-term strategic consequences. It is becoming clear that russian aggression against Ukraine is not a local regional conflict, but a challenge to the entire West.

   Therefore, one way or another, Europe has begun to prepare for war, and this is a positive signal for Ukraine. 

10. Ukrainian Crimea and the Black Sea are a war sensation. A "Black Dolphin" is a demonstrative, unexpected and completely unpredictable outcome for russians due to the Ukrainian Defence Forces' combat operations.

    30% of the destroyed Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy is a striking example of new technologies and modern tactics. Moreover, it is a forecast of the future and a warning of the present.

    For those who call for taking into account the "realities on the ground", do not forget to look back at the "realities on the water", and later at the "realities in the air" ...and our land we will not forget.  

Everyone has moments of despair and despondency, when it seems that there is no stamina left and everything is drowning in the darkness... But the morning comes, the sun rises, and the energy and inspiration to fight returns. We should all remember how far we have come - from saying goodbye to us as an independent state in 2022 to hoping for us as a country that can bury the last colonial under-state in the world in 2024.

Moreover, we must remember who made this possible - the Ukrainian soldier in the trenches who bears the brunt of the Great War, without whose blood and sweat the picture of the future would be completely different. And there might not be many of us in this world, those who are reading this text now; there would be no Ukraine, and no world, if the mad monster, having conquered Ukraine, had not stopped, gone on... and it would have... and this threat does not disappear...

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We bow low to our defenders! Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine

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