Ukraine “prepares ground” for attacks on Crimea after arrival of F-16 fighter jets − Business Insider

Western experts believe that if Ukraine wins the war with Russia, it will happen in temporarily occupied Crimea. Currently, the Ukrainian defence forces are successfully attacking Russian weapons on the peninsula and the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge to disrupt the logistics of the Russians.    Source: Business Insider 

Details: Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, believes that by targeting the peninsula, especially Russian ground-based air defence systems, Ukraine is "preparing the ground" for future air attacks after the arrival of F-16 fighters. 

Quote from Mertens: "Crimea is vulnerable. The Russians have relatively limited manoeuvre space on the peninsula. Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily.

So, if a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here - and above the Black Sea that becomes fully accessible once the GBAD [ground-based air defence] on Crimea is dealt with." Details: Earlier, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence Chief, reported that Russia had relocated its most modern S-500 air defence system to the peninsula.  At the same time, Maria Snegovaya, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, said that "Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea" because it will allow Ukraine to use "the threat of the status of Crimea as a bargaining chip in future negotiations".

Elina Beketova, a democracy expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, is convinced that if Ukraine can regain control of the Black Sea and reclaim the peninsula or put enough pressure on these territories to threaten Putin, "it will mark the end of the war". 

Business Insider recalls that at the beginning of the year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made it clear that the battle for Crimea and the Black Sea would play a central role in the coming months.  Olga Khvostunova, a researcher in the Eurasian program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, is convinced that Russia's defeat in Crimea would be "not just a defeat, but a humiliation".  Journalists recalled that over the past few weeks, Ukraine has carried out a number of successful attacks on the region, destroying several Russian air defence batteries and striking the Belbek airbase near Sevastopol. 

Elina Beketova believes the Ukrainian attacks on the peninsula "are proving successful due to thorough preparation and systemic work, better opportunities for defence forces, satellite and aerial intelligence provided to Ukraine by NATO allies". At the same time, Business Insider notes that Ukraine, which lost its traditional navy during the annexation of Crimea, is attacking the Russian Black Sea fleet with great success using naval drones.  These attacks allowed Ukraine to resume grain supplies across the Black Sea, which is crucial to its economy and forced the Russian Black Sea fleet to hide its ships away from Sevastopol in Crimea. 

Business Insider also writes that the destruction of the illegal Crimean Bridge, which connects mainland Russia with the eastern coast of Crimea, would be "both a strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine and a major blow to Putin". Quote: "Ukraine has already struck the bridge twice since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, but it has thusfar failed to destroy it. Earlier this year, officials from Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence told the Guardian that Ukraine would target the bridge for a third time before the year was up.

Its destruction is 'inevitable', they said. There are already signs that Russia, too, fears Ukraine may make another attack on the bridge," writes Business Insider. Last week, the UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russia had installed eight barges on the south side of the bridge to reduce "approach angles for Ukrainian unmanned vehicles". 

In addition, Russia has begun to take measures to reduce its dependence on the Crimean Bridge; in particular, Russians are building a railway from Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia to Crimea. Background: Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces have been making efforts to weaken Russian air defence systems. If successful, this could allow Ukraine to more effectively utilise manned aircraft in the long term. 

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