Kremlin increases drone production to showcase efforts to offset war losses – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Kremlin has been ramping up drone production amid efforts to showcase compensation for the social and economic impacts of the war in Ukraine. Source: ISW Quote: "The Kremlin continues to signal its commitment to improving Russian drone operations in Ukraine and drone production capabilities amid efforts to offset the social and economic impacts of a protracted Russian war effort."

Details: On 19 September, Russian leader Vladimir Putin met with Russia's Military-Industrial Commission to discuss efforts to expand the country's drone production. 

He acknowledged the growing importance of drones in modern warfare, a fact which has been further confirmed by Russia's war in Ukraine. Putin claimed that Russian companies delivered around 140,000 drones to Russian forces in 2023 and outlined plans to increase production tenfold to 1.4 million drones in 2024.

He stressed the need to steadily enhance both drone production and the performance of Russian-made drones to meet military demands. Putin praised private drone production efforts, noting that drones produced by private companies are not "inferior" to those from state defence manufacturers. 

He also mentioned that the Russian Defence Ministry rigorously tests all drone models before deploying them to the frontlines. However, a DW investigation revealed evidence suggesting that some Russian irregular forces may be using newly-developed drones in strikes on Ukrainian civilians, potentially to expedite the testing process. Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers have frequently criticised the poor quality of state-produced drones while commending private manufacturers for delivering more effective models.

Quote: "Putin's claims that Russian plans to increase the drone-production to 1.4 million drones in 2024 is slightly lower than planned Ukrainian drone production rates in 2024.  Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Strategic Industrial Hanna Hvozdiar noted in March 2024 that Ukraine intends to produce two million drones in 2024, and Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasised that Ukraine is prioritising modernising and constantly developing new drones to meet the needs of Ukrainian servicemembers." To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 19 September:  

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin reportedly declined a request from the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) to offset Russian losses by declaring another mobilisation wave in spring 2024 likely to avoid political costs associated with involuntary reserve call-ups.

  Putin has since remained committed to his crypto mobilisation campaign, constraining Russia's mobilisation potential.

• Mobilisation in Russia remains unlikely in the near to medium term due to Putin's personal fear that mobilisation is a direct threat to his regime's stability.
• Russian authorities have reportedly tasked Russian forces with pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast by mid-October 2024 and establishing a "buffer zone" into Ukrainian border areas along the international border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October -- significant undertakings that the Russian military is very unlikely to achieve in such a short period of time.
• The Kremlin continues to signal its commitment to improving Russian drone operations in Ukraine and drone production capabilities amid efforts to offset the social and economic impacts of a protracted Russian war effort.
• Putin claimed that Russia must ensure that there are "no barriers" to the movement of Russian citizens between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad Oblast.
• The reported transfer of Indian artillery shells through European intermediaries to Ukraine is reportedly generating tensions within the Russian-Indian relationship.
• The European Parliament called on member states to lift restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use Western-provided long-range systems to strike military objects in Russia.
• Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Russian forces recently advanced near the city of Kharkiv and settlements of Svatove, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Huliaipole.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin indicated during a meeting on the development of the Russian Armed Forces on 18 September that the Kremlin aims to improve Russia's federal-level training system.

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