How Putin’s ally in Bosnia and Herzegovina is losing popularity

On 6 October, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), one of Europe's most unstable states, held local elections. Although the elections were calm and didn't mark any major scandals, they were still notable. The elections were not held across the entire country due to flooding, so they had to be postponed in five municipalities.

However, floods were not the only distinctive feature of these elections. Read more in the article by Volodymyr Tsybulnyk, the interim Charg? d'Affaires of Ukraine in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2018) - Warning for Dodik: How political climate in BiH is shifting against Russia's allies. It was the eighth election in BiH since the end of the war, covering all parts of the country: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republika Srpska and the Br?ko District.

Only 3,200 out of 26,089 candidates will be elected to various local government positions, including municipal councils and 143 mayoral seats. Advertisement: The most significant aspect of these elections was the introduction of changes to the Election Law, enacted in March by High Representative Christian Schmidt.

One key change prohibits individuals convicted of war crimes by international or BiH courts from running for office or participating in the election process. For the first time, electronic ballot counting and voter registration were piloted at some polling stations, alongside video surveillance in voting and ballot-counting rooms. The elections occurred in a politically unstable environment, exacerbated by Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska (RS).

Dodik violated mandatory directives from Christian Schmidt and frequently made separatist statements. Additionally, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (not to be confused with Serbia) passed an election law, threatening to enforce it during these elections, although international pressure prevented this. Given the instability, the military increased its security measures at all military sites, and the State Investigation and Protection Agency heightened security at infrastructure facilities and public gatherings.

In the lead-up to the elections, EUFOR conducted the final stage of its Quick Response exercises. Despite these efforts, the number of violations remained high, according to local NGOs and international observers. Also, the required 40% female representation among candidates was not achieved, although the situation has slightly improved compared to previous years.

The main issue, however, remains foreign interference. Croatian leaders and politicians repeatedly visited Croat-majority areas during the campaign. Dodik and his party, in particular, received overt support from politicians in Russia, Serbia and Hungary, pushing the boundaries of legality.

As of 10 October, final results are still unavailable, but some conclusions can already be drawn. The local elections showed that Dodik is gradually losing popularity. There is widespread dissatisfaction with local governments and political parties.

This makes the general elections in 2026 even more critical, as they may mark the beginning of a real renewal in BiH.

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