Russia using threats to keep US from allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russian officials are using new threats to deter the US from allowing Ukraine to fire ATACMS missiles deep into Russia. Source: ISW Details: Russian officials continued to use threatening rhetoric to deter the US from publicly authorising Ukraine to use US-provided ATACMS missiles to conduct limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

Quote from ISW: "This US authorisation, if officially confirmed, would notably be a mild response to Russia's escalatory introduction of North Korean troops as active combatants in Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

Details: Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said on 18 November that the United States is "adding fuel to the fire" and that the US authorisation of Ukrainian strikes with ATACMS missiles against Russian military targets would be a "qualitatively new round of tension and qualitative change in US participation in the war." Peskov again repeated Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin's statement of 12 September that strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russia using long-range weapons would imply the direct involvement of Western countries in the war.

Mariia Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, also echoed Putin's September statements, saying that Ukraine's long-range missile strikes on Russia would be "a radical change in the nature and essence of the conflict" and that Russia's response would be "adequate and tangible". Quote from ISW: "Select Russian officials and propagandists heavily emphasised that US officials have not yet formally confirmed the ATACMS strike authorisation, likely in an attempt to convince the United States to back out of the decision and deny the media reports of the authorisation." 

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 18 November:

• Russian officials continued to use threatening rhetoric as part of efforts to deter the United States from publicly authorising Ukraine's use of US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in Kursk Oblast.

  This US authorisation, if officially confirmed, would notably be a mild response to Russia's escalatory introduction of North Korean troops as active combatants in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

• Putin's introduction of North Korea as a new belligerent in his invasion of Ukraine was a major escalation.

  Allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against legitimate military targets in Russian territory in accord with all international laws and laws of armed conflict is a very limited response and cannot reasonably be characterised as an escalation in itself.

• French and UK sources clarified on 18 November that the reported US permissions regarding Ukraine's ability to use ATACMS for limited strikes within Russia do not inherently extend to Ukraine's ability to use French and UK-provided SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russia.
• The Kremlin continues to state its unwillingness to accept any compromises, including those that would "freeze" the conflict along the current frontline - further demonstrating the Kremlin's insistence on complete Ukraine capitulation.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, in Kupiansk, west of Kreminna, and on the Siversky, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar fronts.
• The Kremlin is continuing to militarise different levels of the Russian government by expanding the "Time of Heroes" programme that aims to place veterans of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in positions in local, regional, and federal governments.
• The Russian Ministry of Defen?e (MoD) illegally conscripted Ukrainian youth in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as part of Russia's Autumn 2024 conscription cycle.

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