German intelligence chief says Russia could attack NATO in coming years

Russia may launch an attack on NATO territory in the coming years, Bruno Kahl, chief of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), has said. Source: Zeit Online, citing Kahl at the German Council of Foreign Relations in Berlin, as reported by European Pravda Details: Kahl asserted that Russia is "preparing for war with the West" and military conflict is becoming a "possible option" for the Kremlin.

Kahl believes the Russian military will be capable of "attacking the West" in terms of personnel and resources by the end of the decade.

However, the German intelligence chief believes it will be a limited operation rather than a large-scale attack on European NATO countries, such as an invasion of the Norwegian Arctic island of Spitsbergen with the goal of "clearing territory", or of the Baltic countries under the guise of protecting Russian minorities. The aim of such efforts would be to render collective security commitments under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty ineffective and undermine NATO, Kahl explained.

According to German intelligence assessments, the Russian leadership doubts "whether the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 would remain in effect in emergency situations". "If such views prevail in the Russian leadership, the risk of a military conflict in the coming years will also increase," Kahl said. 

However, he also believes Russia will attempt to divide NATO even before a war breaks out - by winning individual member states over to its side, for example.

Vladimir Putin "will test the West's red lines and escalate further," Kahl added.

Background: 

• NATO and its member nations have repeatedly warned of the potential of a military conflict with Russia.
• General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, believes that regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends, the Russian army will be stronger after it than it is now.

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