The war for Trump and the war against Trump. How Zelenskyy is preparing for a new reality

The atmosphere in the Office of the President of Ukraine was quite tense on the eve of the US presidential election. Many members of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's team were anxious, to put it mildly, about the results of the American election. Perhaps one of the only people who at least outwardly kept calm and maintained his self-control was the head of the Office, Andrii Yermak. He even calmed the others down.

"There's no need to panic; Kamala will win, and there will be no catastrophe," Yermak said, according to two unrelated UP sources who met with the head of the Office on 4 November.

However, within two days, it became clear that plan A did not work and that a "plan B" had to be found quickly. But it was a very difficult task. The problem was not that American sociologists and Ukrainian analysts were wrong in their predictions.

The problem is that the colossal amount of work done by Zelenskyy and his team to prepare the Peace Formula and attempts to gain acceptance for his Victory Plan on the world are now in question. Or even lost their relevance at all. What might have worked with Biden seems downright irrational for Trump.

Starting with the invitation to NATO and down the list. "We could criticise Biden a lot for his indecision and hesitation. But he was predictable.

As a child of the Cold War, Biden had clear guiding principles: for him, the inviolability of borders and supporting people who share common values were fundamental. Even if he had wanted somehow to get out of the war in Ukraine, he simply could not opt for some form of recognition of conquest or anything like that. What about Trump?

No one knows, and this is the main problem," a Ukrainian diplomatic source explains off the record. Outwardly, President Zelenskyy and his team continue to project the image that the situation on the diplomatic front is "challenging but under control." This is supported by a certain inertia in global processes, at least until Trump takes office. However, behind the scenes of global political life, preparations are underway for decisive battles for the contours of the future world order.

Ukrainska Pravda has been investigating how Ukraine can be included in key decision-making, and has been examining who is trying to reach Trump from Bankova Street [site of the President's Office in Kyiv], and how.

The war for a seat next to Trump

Usually, when talking about American politics, several well-known locations in Washington are referred to: the White House, Capitol Hill, etc. At the moment, however, the world's attention is focused not on the US capital but on a small island off Palm Beach, where Donald Trump's private resort is located. The 126-room Mar-a-Lago estate has become the venue for the Trump team's most heated discussions about the future first steps in power, dozens of interviews with candidates for key positions in the US and phone calls with world leaders.

Anyone who wishes to exert influence in American politics must have access to Mar-a-Lago. Few people have it, and even fewer can sit at a table with the future president of the United States for days on end and promote their people or ideas. The range of those with a "working vacation" at Trump's resort is very specific.

Most of them would have been called "Family" in Yanukovych's Ukraine. This term is not used in the United States, although his son, Donald Trump Jr., plays a leading role in Trump's circles. For example, he was one of those who persistently lobbied for his friend J.D.

Vance to become vice president. It is Trump Jr. who is the informal leader of an aggressive ultra-conservative group of young politicians who claim leadership in the so-called MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement. The world's most prosperous businessman, Elon Musk, who has literally been living with Trump in recent weeks, holds similar views.

Even though he has no formal status, he can participate in international negotiations, as he did during a call between Trump and Zelenskyy. "The atmosphere in Mar-a-Lago is a bit like it was at Zelenskyy's headquarters after his election as president of Ukraine: everyone is in a state of euphoria and a strong belief that they are about to turn the world upside down," says one Ukrainian politician who has had contact with Trump's headquarters. The scale of this euphoria and overconfidence can be seen from what people like Musk take the liberty of doing on social media.

For instance, mocking Zelenskyy's statement on X that Ukraine is a sovereign country and cannot simply be forced to comply with someone else's terms.

However, those familiar with the conversation between the Ukrainian president and his newly elected American counterpart recount that Musk behaved quite modestly during their interaction, showing no arrogance or posturing. Trump merely mentioned that the businessman was present; Musk greeted them, said a few words, and then simply listened to the discussion. Fortunately for Ukraine, alongside the future American president there are also more moderate, one might say "traditional" conservatives who actually make up the majority within the Republican Party.

Marco Rubio, who is the nominee for secretary of state, and future national security adviser Mike Waltz are worth mentioning here. Both are traditional Republican hawks, actively dislike China and Iran, and have rather pro-Ukrainian views. They look measured and moderate in comparison to the MAGA group.

Incidentally, the disproportionately large role played by Trump's "young reformers" in making personnel and other decisions is noticeably straining relations with the rest of the Republicans. The story of the vote for the Senate majority leader is telling in this regard. Trumpists from Mar-a-Lago actively supported Rick Scott for this position and criticised other candidates.

However, the senators made a rather pointed decision by voting for John Thune, who has repeatedly expressed his support for Ukraine. "Trump will be the one to decide everything. But the Republican Party is not only about Trump and definitely not about his "young team".

The mainstream party members are deeply unsettled by figures like Musk, and conflicts cannot be ruled out. This is especially so, considering that the Republicans have a very fragile majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, where every vote matters. This means that Trump will have to meet the demands of the party," as a source in Ukrainian diplomatic circles describes the situation.

"But for now, until Trump becomes president, until all his nominees are actually appointed to the government and other bodies, this loud and aggressive MAGA minority will have a significant impact and will behave as aggressively as possible. That's why all Ukraine's friends are now behaving in a very restrained way in public, so as not to arouse hate," adds the source, who is familiar with American backroom politics.

The war for Trump: the Ukrainian dimension

"In Ukraine, everyone somehow thinks that Trump wakes up with thoughts about us and goes to sleep with them. These are illusions. He is now spending 90% of his time looking for people for his Cabinet.

And the remaining 10% of his time is spent on all the other issues: the border [with Mexico - ed.], migration, abortion and China. And only then does Ukraine emerge somewhere," a current Ukrainian diplomat told Ukrainska Pravda. If you follow the key news items and statements that hit the pages of the world's media from Trump's transit team, the lion's share of them are about personnel, and a few more about Trump's proposal to declare a national state of emergency in the United States, mass deportations of illegal immigrants, or import tariffs against Canada and China.

There has been no solid statement about the end of the war in Ukraine or details of any serious plan by Trump. "And he doesn't have any plan yet. Trump has now been granted access to classified documents as president-elect, and he is gradually receiving dumps of intelligence files, analytics, schedules, information on the defence industry and so on.

And all this information changes the way one looks at the actual state of affairs. Therefore, if there was a plan, it will now have to be changed to reflect reality. But so far, the world is not coming to an end," says one of the Ukrainian politicians with contacts at Trump's headquarters.

Another source from Zelenskyy's inner circle says that the new American team is now waiting for a "realistic" scenario from Ukraine for ending the war. "There is no point for Ukraine to put pressure on Trump now, because he has no solution. And the harder we push, the sooner we may end up with a solution that we won't like at all," sums up one of the diplomats involved in US relations.

Therefore, the Ukrainian embassy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Office of the President are trying to work with the US Congress, establish contacts with Trump's transition team, look for ways to communicate directly, and so on.

But the lion's share of this work is not covered in the media at all, so as not to trigger Trumpists and other hotheads. Similarly, Andrii Yermak's trip to the United States, which was discussed during the conversation between the presidents, has not been announced publicly anywhere. "Bipartisanship is our mantra.

And this is what we have to work with. We still have a pro-Ukrainian majority in both houses of Congress. We need to preserve that as much as possible.

And give our true friends time to convey our view of the situation to Trump and try to get him on the pro-Ukrainian side," says one of Ukrainska Pravda's sources in diplomatic circles. After Zelenskyy's last visit to the US and House Speaker Mike Johnson's demarche against Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova, there is tension between the Ukrainian embassy and the Speaker's office. This prevents Markarova and Johnson from working with each other directly, but does not affect her work with Congress.

For instance, the embassy has a working relationship with the Trump team, many of whom Markarova worked with when she was the Minister of Finance of Ukraine (2018-2020). During Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha's recent visit to the US, he also had productive bipartisan meetings with members of both Houses of Congress. Zelenskyy himself has so far ignored Johnson's demand that Markarova be fired.

However, after Trump's election victory, Zelenskyy's office began to discuss this possibility. "Recommendations" to the President of Ukraine from a certain Andrew Mac have been playing a not insignificant role. Mac positions himself in Washington as a key communicator for Zelenskyy.

He is a lawyer and former partner of the Kyiv-based firm Magisters. He has been registered as an unpaid lobbyist for Zelenskyy since 2019. Although his achievements in this area are rather modest, he has close contacts in Johnson's office.

It is not surprising that he is the one who has been trying to convince Zelenskyy's team that Markarova's dismissal and replacement is inevitable. If it comes to that, Zelenskyy is considering several candidates for replacement, the main ones being Yermak's deputy, Ihor Zhovkva, and the current ambassador to Brazil, Andrii Melnyk. In addition to working via the ambassador, the Ukrainian President's Office is seeking direct working communications with the Trump team.

However, there are difficulties here because the future US president's entourage often sends contradictory signals. "Some say that Trump still hasn't forgiven Ze [Zelenskyy - ed.] and Yermak for not going all out for him in 2020 during the impeachment, and he lost the election. But Trump himself publicly thanked us for our position at the time.

Others say that there will be no support, but Trump himself said during the call that everything will be fine, he will not abandon us. It seems that they are deliberately creating uncertainty," says one Ukrainska Pravda source on Bankova Street.

Despite all the difficulties, the President's Office has managed to establish some communication with Richard Grenell, former US Ambassador to Germany and former Acting Director of National Intelligence. Contact was made with him after the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy this autumn, which Grenell attended.

According to Western media, Trump is considering appointing Grenell as special envoy for the Russo-Ukrainian war. And it is with him that Andrii Yermak is currently establishing contacts. * * * "If we talk to the Americans, we come to the conclusion that we are starting from scratch.

Our main task now is to avoid causing trouble and to hold back from exerting too much pressure. There are a lot of people around Trump who are not our friends, let's put it this way. We need to get through the winter and wait for the inauguration, and then we can talk about these matters seriously," says one of Ukrainska Pravda sources among the political elite.

This is how Zelenskyy's team explains the fact that despite the global change in the rules of the game, Zelenskyy continues to stick to his cascade of "plans". "The presentation of the internal Resilience Plan in the Verkhovna Rada [the Ukrainian parliament] was intended for ordinary people, because Zelenskyy sees that we are running out of steam. The main point made there is that next year everything will somehow be resolved.

Whether good or bad, there will be some kind of solution. We've suffered for three years, let's hold on a little more. If we don't explain this to people, we will face a new wave of emigration," says Ukrainska Pravda's source in the Servant of the People party.

This is understandable, although it is difficult to believe in the effectiveness of what is known in Ukraine as the cultural Ramstein Group [a forum to promote Ukrainian culture at home and abroad]. After all, the future of even the military Ramstein Group does not seem to be guaranteed, and the leadership of Ukraine's most important ally is in the hands of people who do not consider it necessary to hide their arrogance and rudeness. "The new Trump administration and we may not like each other, but Ukraine alone will not bring the Russians to the negotiating table.

We have no leverage and nothing to pressure them with that could force them to back down. Nothing will work without Trump. So we are sitting still, holding the Kursk front and waiting for January," the source in Zelenskyy's team concludes.

Roman Romaniuk, Ukrainska Pravda

Translation: Violetta Yurkiv and Myroslava Zavadska

Editing: Monica Sandor