General Zabrodskyi voices the needs of the Armed Forces to continue the war with Russia
2 November, 2022 Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence The development of the situation at the frontline in the coming months will depend on three key factors. This is winter, the possible retreat of the Russians from the operational bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper and the ghostly, but still likely possibility of an enemy invasion from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi writes about this in his article for Ukrinform. He is the first deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada committee on national security, defense and intelligence. The General advises to strengthen defense in threatening directions, to take care of providing the Ukrainian military with the eastern direction in case of problems with logistics and describes possible scenarios for the development of events at the front.
Potential developments of the situation
First of all, the General analyzes the most complex and dangerous version of the development of events.
In the worst case, during a short pause at the front, the Russians will form, prepare and transfer the troops withdrawn from the Kherson bridgehead and make them the basis for two powerful strike groups. One of them can be deployed in Zaporizhzhia, the other one in the Sumy direction. The task of these groups may be to deliver two concentrated strikes from the northern and southern directions.
According to General Zabrodskyi, the northern strike group of Russian troops can be used in the "Sumy - Poltava - Dnieper" direction, and the southern - in the "Zaporizhzhia - Dnieper" direction. The task of these troops on the eastern line of contact will be to block the groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine so that they cannot be a help in other threatening directions. And the ultimate military goal of this operation will be the strategic encirclement of the armed forces of Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnieper.
If such an operation is successful, the Russian Federation will try to force Ukraine to negotiate from a position of pressure. The conditions will be similar to those that the Russians have already put forward in March this year. According to the General, such a plan was probably already considered by the command of the Russian Armed Forces in the spring of this year.
The enemy even tried to implement its individual elements. However, now the presence of additional two-dimensional groupings and the current configuration of the contact line gives this idea a "second life", provided that it is unchanged. At the same time, the spring miscalculations of the Russian command, in particular the unsuccessful attempts to acquire large settlements, can be taken into account relatively easily.
In addition, the task of capturing five large cities with a total population of about two million people may not be put at all. After all, the basis of the probable plan is the cutting of supply routes for Ukrainian troops in the east of the country, for example, highways E50 and M03.
Deployment of new operational groups
The General advises the Armed Forces of Ukraine to increase sustainable defense in threatening directions. They are already working on this and will continue to work.
According to Zabrodskyi, now the enemy is most interested in the northern direction, so you need to strengthen the defense there. "In addition, the defense of major administrative centers of the Dnieper and Zaporizhzhia without reliable support on the right bank of the Dnieper can put our troops in the position in which the enemy is on the Kherson bridgehead today, with all the problems of supply and support," Zabrodskyi summarizes. Under such conditions, the General considers it promising to create new powerful operational groups.
In the south - in the area east of Zaporizhzhia, in the north - in the area of Sumy. In addition to ensuring the stability of the defense, such groups, in case of enemy success, would create a significant flank threat for him and would provide a guaranteed opportunity to break through the possible environment. Specifically, to perform these tasks, you need to create two operational associations.
Each of them should consist of 4-5 combined arms, 2-3 tank and 1-2 artillery brigades. In total, it is about 600 tanks, up to 1,100 armored personnel carriers/IFVs and up to 500 guns and MLRS. In the issue of arms supplies, the general relies on international technical assistance from NATO and the United States.
Convoy of Ukrainian BTR-4E.
Photo credits: SERGEY BOBOK
It is also important to ensure the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east to possible long-term autonomous hostilities and operations in conditions of isolation from the right bank of Ukraine. First of all, this concerns the provision of food, fuel and ammunition. The duration of this autonomy should be determined by the situation and measured in weeks and months.
The general also considers it possible to move the eastern group of troops of Ukraine from defense along the existing line of contact to strikes in the direction of Lugansk and Mariupol, which can radically change the operational situation, the effectiveness of which has already been proven by a successful operation in the east in September. The most expedient way to solve the issue in the Polissia and Volyn directions is to create a separate association for action in the wooded and swamp areas of this region. In addition to the standard set of 3-4 combined arms brigades, such a group should have a "reinforced" artillery staff.
Reliable fire cover for a few directions to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine will provide the opportunity to build a defense on a wide front.
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