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Margaret Ferrier, the MP for Rutherglen and West Hamilton, got a cough on the afternoon of Saturday 26 September 2020 - setting off a chain of events with possible consequences for all three major parties. As is now well-known, she travelled to London and spoke in parliament; and after receiving a positive result, got the train back to Glasgow in defiance of the restrictions in place at the time that she should immediately isolate. Ms Ferrier had the whip withdrawn by the Scottish National Party and was convicted in court for recklessly exposing the public to COVID, being sentenced to 270 hours of community service.

Already unable to stand for the SNP at the next election, now her political career may come to an even faster end as the Commons Standards Committee recommends a 30-day suspension. This is at the higher end, in recognition of two serious breaches of the Members Code of Conduct they identify, and if agreed by a majority of MPs in a vote, she faces an automatic recall petition and a by-election. For the SNP, this is hardly the news that new First Minister Humza Yousaf would want on his second day in the job as - pending the petition and any appeal by Ms Ferrier - sets the stage for a competitive by-election.

Her seat is one of the few that Labour briefly regained in 2017 following their post-referendum wipe-out in Scotland. A Scottish Labour source says: "This is a seat that we can win. There will likely be panic stations in SNP HQ."

It will certainly be an interesting test of Labour's chances ahead of 2024, in which a recovery north of the border will likely be key to whether the party will do as well nationally as the polls currently suggest. Then there is an intriguing twist involving the Conservatives. Three of the four Tories on the Standards Committee, along with the SNP member, voted against the 30-day suspension and tried to push for a nine-day one - under the threshold for recall - instead.

It may be relevant that these are the same MPs will be making judgment over whether Boris Johnson misled parliament and what sanction he may face if so.

Whether this division in the committee sets the stage for a showdown vote in parliament on the 30-day sanction is unclear, as Conservatives were deeply burned by the government's decision to whip the vote against Owen Paterson's 30-day suspension last year which helped bring down Boris Johnson in the first place.