Russia fails to achieve its goals by end of March – ISW
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin's goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Source: ISW report from 1 April 2023 Details: Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin's goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31.
The ISW says that the Russian milbloggers fretted that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect between 16 April and 9 May.
Milbloggers highlighted their disappointment that there have not been any decisive battles throughout the winter and observed that Russia will not be capable of continuing a large-scale offensive operation if it is unable to secure Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the coming weeks. ISW had long assessed that the Russian winter offensive is unlikely to be successful due to persistent failures of the Russian command to comprehend the time and space relationships involved in such a campaign. ISW also assessed that Russia would lack the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and ongoing recruitment campaigns in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories may indicate that Russia is preparing for reserve shortages.
We have launched English Twitter!
Follow us!
Growing Russian speculation about Russian military command changes likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive, the report states.
Key ISW Takeaways as of 1 April:
- Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin's goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by 31 March.
- Growing Russian speculation about Russian military command changes likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
- Russian forces continued to build defences in occupied southern Ukraine.
- Russia began its semi-annual conscription on 1 April, the largest conscription call-up since 2016.
- Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under rest-and-rehabilitation schemes.
- Russian nationalist figures criticised Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for failing to pursue the Union State between Russia and Belarus efforts since the mid-1990s.
Background: UK Defence Intelligence reported that the Russian military command's plans to expand the territories under its control in Donbas during the winter offensive failed.
Journalists fight on their own frontline. Support Ukrainska Pravda or become our patron!