ISW explains why Russia is actively talking about missile attacks on Ukraine

The Russian Defence Ministry is actively informing about missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine in order to reduce the level of concern in the Russian information space about the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe. Source: ISW report Details: The institute cited information reports from the Ukrainian and Russian sides about another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine, which the Russian Federation carried out on the night of 30 April-1 May.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that nine Tu-95 and two Tu-160 strategic bomber jets took off from Murmansk Oblast and near the Caspian Sea and fired 18 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles over Ukraine. Ukrainian air defence shot down 15 missiles.

The Russian Defence Ministry said on 1 May that the strikes targeted Ukrainian military-industrial facilities and successfully disrupted the production of military resources. And the Russian military bloggers claimed that the missiles struck Ukrainian air defence systems and a transport hub in Pavlohrad.

Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, noted that the fact that both the Tu-95s and Tu-160s carried far fewer missiles than their maximum load suggests that Russia continues to struggle to produce enough of these munitions. At the same time, analysts noted that geolocation footage from Pavlohrad shows that one of the missiles hit the Pavlohrad chemical plant and caused a powerful explosion as a result of the strike.

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Quote: "The Russian MoD has recently shifted its rhetoric and is actively describing strike campaigns, likely in an effort to portray a proactive approach to growing concerns in the Russian information space regarding a Ukrainian counteroffensive."

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